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The decline of Bitcoin (BTC) has given rise to conspiracy theories about allegations of market manipulation by companies. However, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hogan argues that the main reasons are more direct.
This novel highlights the ongoing debate about what drives the biggest movements in the cryptocurrency market, whether they are institutional strategies, technological threats, or fundamental market cycles.
Why is the price of Bitcoin falling?
Hogan addressed widespread speculation on social media that Bitcoin’s decline was the result of coordinated moves. BeInCrypto previously reported that some users They brought charges against him Binance.
Recently, some members of the community have pointed out recurring patterns As it is called “Dumping Bitcoin at 10am” by Jane Street. The executive rejected these narratives, calling the current explanation “more boring” than the theories suggest.
“Conspiracy theories are crazy. First it was Binance, then Wintermute, then an unknown offshore macro hedge fund, then fiat Bitcoin, today is Jane Street, next week it will be another.” He said.
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Hogan said that “the real reason Bitcoin is down” is because the long-term campaign reduces exposure to risk. According to him, reduced Position investors sell spot Bitcoin by closing financial trades, and writing hedges, they create downward pressure on the price.
Bitwise’s CIO attributed the sales behavior to three factors:
- Market cycle theory For four years.
- Concerns related to quantum computing.
- Capital rotation from cryptocurrencies to artificial intelligence (AI) startups.
The quantum computing debate has gained momentum in the cryptocurrency community recently. While Michael Saylor, co-founder of MicroStrategy, minimizes, Recently of his fears As for quantum risks, some investors remain cautious.
Kevin O’Leary, a Canadian entrepreneur and Shark Tank investor, warned investors Institutionalists They limit the allocation of Bitcoin to about 3% until the industry shows a reliable solution to quantum fragility. Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, went further, Where the 10% allocation has been removed From a portfolio of models based on the same concerns.
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Cryptocurrency Winter Timeline and Recovery Prospects
Meanwhile, Hogan added that most of the sale has likely been completed. He stated that Bitcoin is in the “bottoming process” and may eventually reach new all-time highs. According to him,
“This is a classic crypto winter and there will be a classic crypto spring.”
Hogan said earlier The current income of cryptocurrency started in January 2025Given the 13-month history, the end may be near.
Chain analyst Willie Wu offers a more complex view. He added that the recent selloff appears stressful, but warned that deteriorating spot and futures liquidity may limit any near-term recovery.
Wu’s timeline places the end of bearish conditions in Q4 2026, with bullish momentum potentially returning in Q1 or Q2 2027.
“~45K would be a typical bottom in a bear market. Bitcoin only existed in a secular macroeconomic global market from 2009 to 2026. If the global macroeconomic collapses, 30K is the pullback support level for a return, and 16K is the bottom line to maintain Bitcoin’s trend.” books has been.
The gap between these timelines reflects a broader uncertainty about exactly where the market is in its cycle. What analysts generally agree on is that Bitcoin’s current weakness reflects structural and psychological forces, not manipulation.
