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The price of Paycoin rose almost 11% from its low on February 23, and returned to the $0.174 region. This type of recovery usually indicates strength and attracts new investors who expect greater upside.
But it should be noted that this recovery may not be bullish at all. Rather, it may be the final stage of a bearish structure. At the same time, retail traders are aggressively buying the dip, although deeper indicators show that the recovery is weakening. This creates a situation where the recovery itself can increase the risk of a new decline, due to a technical pattern.
Pi coin’s recovery is in a bearish pattern, but retail investors are still buying
Paycoin recovery Currently, an inverted cup and handle pattern is forming, which is a bearish structure that often sends prices down. The current price increase represents the cycle part of this model. Loop bounces often look strong, but usually fail under resistance and lead to a crash.
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Liquidity and volume indicators at the same time show a serious contradiction.
Since February 23, the indicator of General Volume (OBV), which tracks the volume of purchases, has been increasing continuously. This shows that traders are buying the dip and strongly supporting the rebound. A breakout of the downtrend trend line could extend this dangerous result further, while maintaining the interest of newcomers.
The Money Flow Index (MFI), which measures buying pressure for price and volume, confirms this behavior. Between February 16 and February 23, the price of Paycoin continued to fall and hit new lows. But during the same period, the IMF created a higher minimum. This results in a positive skew on the IMF.
Positive breakouts occur when buying pressure increases even as the price decreases. A high OBV-MFI confirms strong buying activity on dips. But this is exactly what makes the situation dangerous. Individuals can buy more, but the price of PI coin is still trapped in a bearish structure. This creates the conditions for a potential trap.
Momentum is building, but price strength remains weak
The weaknesses become clearer when you compare the strength of the momentum to the price structure. Between January 27 and February 25, the price of the PI coin formed a lower high. This means that the rebound was weaker than the previous increase and confirmed that the general trend is still bearish.
At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures the strength of the momentum, formed a higher high. This creates a hidden bearish breakout.
A hidden bearish breakout occurs when momentum builds, but price fails to break through resistance. This usually indicates that buyers are losing control, and that the rebound may soon turn into a correction, extending the general downtrend. When this happens in a bearish chart pattern, the probability of a price breakout increases.
This confirms that even when the price of the PI coin rises, the sellers can still be in control. But if people are buying, then who is selling?
Big investors are quietly selling the Pi Network coin
The contrasts become even more important when studying large-scale financial activity. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator, which tracks whether money is flowing into or out of an asset, has recorded a steady decline and remains below zero. This shows that the total capital is always leaving the coin PI.
This creates another bearish breakout. The price of the PI token rose between February 11 and February 24, while the CMF, which technically represents big money, fell.
This data strongly suggests that large investors are likely to sell during the rebound while individual traders continue to buy. This type of behavior usually appears before meltdowns. Individual buying helps push prices up temporarily, but without support from big investors, the move becomes unsustainable. This shows why a PI coin bounce can be deceptive and perhaps even a trap.
Pi coin price levels now determine whether the recovery fails or survives
PI coin is approaching now It is the most important stage in this structure. If PI falls below $0.161, a bearish inverse cup break and handle pattern will likely be confirmed. This could push PI towards $0.130 (current low) and possibly up to $0.122, forming a new low.
This confirms that the 11% rebound was only a temporary recovery in a larger trend. However, a recovery is still possible if the buyers take back control.
Passing the $0.173 level indicates a start to the return of strength. Crossing $0.193 breaks the bearish pattern significantly. Crossing $0.207 completely cancels the bearish structure.
Until these resistance levels are restored, the risk remains that the PI’s bounce is not the beginning of a recovery. Instead, it may be a preparation for the imminent landing.
