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The long-delayed US jobs report for September delivered stronger-than-expected job creation and a rise in the unemployment rate, offering mixed signals to investors.
However, with October data completely absent, markets are suggesting that the report is already too old to move Bitcoin or other risk assets significantly.
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The stronger version of the non-farm payrolls report, but a higher unemployment rate
The US Labor Department said nonfarm payrolls (NFP) rose by 119,000 in September, more than double the general estimate of about 50,000.
Jobless claims for the week ended November 15 were 220,000, lower than the 227,000 expected, reinforcing the view that the hiring background remains strong despite rising borrowing costs.
However, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, slightly higher than expectations of 4.3%. This strange combination, Strong employment but rising unemploymentThis caused confusion among analysts.
The Labor Department also issued two months of net wage adjustments, subtracting 33,000 hires, with the previous month revised down to -4,000, marking a notable adjustment.
Delayed data creates a blind spot
Analysts say the biggest problem is not the numbers themselves, but the absence of recent data. Because ofDisturbances in relationshipsEmployment numbers for October will not be released, leaving financial markets with an important information gap.
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“The numbers are already outdated and offer little idea of what the labor market is currently … The news can be seen as positive for now and provides space for the Fed to continue cutting interest rates, assuming that inflation allows,” wrote Bitcoin2Go crypto researchers, summarizing the economic landscape.
In a year defined by interest rate cuts, liquidity concerns, and…Conflicting economic signalsThe absence of a full month of federal employment data makes the uncertain outlook even more complex. For traders accustomed to real-time clarity, especially in the crypto market, this gap is important.
In fact, the price of Bitcoin remained firm, trading at 91,983, around The same level at which the market opened Thursday.
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Why cryptocurrency markets have not responded much and what this means for investors
Typically, a stronger-than-expected NFP picture combined with rising unemployment creates a narrative that can move the risk axis. But this time, the reaction was minimal. Bitcoin showed only minor movement, holding close to its weekly average despite the major surprise.
There are three reasons:
1. The data is out of date
The lack of an October release makes the September numbers virtually obsolete. Markets now see November’s inflation reading as more important.
2. The general trend has not changed
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Investors still expect the Fed to continue cutting interest rates in 2025, as long as inflation continues to slow. The old NFP report does not change this course.
3. Liquidity flows dominate cryptocurrencies more than labor data
Bitcoin movements in this quarter Mainly driven by ETF flowsthe changes in the liquidity of the stock exchanges, determine the positions around the end of the year, not statistics of the work.
Currently, markets interpret the September report as slightly bullish due to strong hiring signaling economic resilience, while rising unemployment provides cover for the Fed to ease policy.
However, the lack of October data prevents analysts from confirming whether the labor market is cooling or stabilizing.
The next big macro catalysts are the November inflation picture, the December FOMC meeting, and the upcoming Treasury refinancing announcements, all of which will carry much more weight than today’s legacy jobs report.
