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Bitcoin enters the last week of February on shaky ground, with macro forces (US economic events) once again determining short-term trends.
After last week’s mixed signals, including declining PCE inflation, jobless claims holding at 206,000, and dovish Fed FOMC minutes, markets remain undecided on the pace of rate hikes ahead of the Fed’s March 17-18 meeting.
4 US economic events that traders are following closely
With interest rate expectations delicately balanced, this week’s economic calendar may inject new volatility into cryptocurrency markets.
Federal Reserve officials take the stage
Stretching range Crowded with Fed speeches Monday through Wednesday, with Governors Christopher Waller and Lisa Cook, Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbee, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and others participating.
With markets currently pricing in two to three cuts in 2026, any deviation in tone could quickly change interest rate expectations.
Historically, Waller and Bostic have leaned toward a hawkish position, emphasizing vigilance against inflation and data reliability.
If they reiterate their concerns about lower “last mile” inflation or signal patience with cuts, they could Treasury yields are rising Along with the US dollar. Such an outcome could put pressure on Bitcoin and possibly push it lower.
On the contrary, pessimistic comments highlighting the slowdown in growth or the softening of employment can weaken the dollar and trigger an increase in dilution of risk assets.
A clustered aspect also increases the risk of fluctuations during the day, especially if the messages lack cohesion. For Bitcoin traders, tone, rather than policy action, may be the main catalyst for volatility this week.
Consumer confidence
The Federal Reserve’s Consumer Confidence Index for February comes after a weak January reading of 84.5, well below expectations and historically in line with Signs of recession.
February is expected to improve slightly to 87.5, although sentiment remains subdued amid rising costs of living and persistent inflation.
The PCE data last week showed inflation at 2.7% year-on-year, with the core at 3.0%, reflecting continued price pressures.
A stronger-than-expected confidence picture, especially above 90, reinforces a resilient consumer narrative and reinforces the “no achievement” thesis.
This could reduce expectations of a near-term interest rate cut, lift the dollar, and weigh moderately on Bitcoin.
On the other hand, a surprise drop below 85 highlights the economic fragility. This result is likely to strengthen the chances of a rate cut, which are currently on the rise for March, and provide positive winds for Bitcoin (BTC).
Historically, confidence surprises have led to a 1-2% move in Bitcoin, especially when in line with broader macro trends.
Initial unemployment claims
Meanwhile, initial unemployment claims remain one of the most accurate indicators for the labor market. Last week’s drop to 206,000 was suddenly lower, reinforcing a tight hiring backdrop that has kept the Fed cautious about an anticipated easing. The consensus is now expected to reach 215,000.
If claims fall below 210,000, that would be a signal To the continuity of the work force It may strengthen the Fed’s hawkish votes.
This scenario could raise yields and put moderate pressure on Bitcoin. Strong employment data tends to delay expectations of interest rate cuts, reducing liquidity support for risk assets.
Conversely, a rise above 225,000 would raise concerns about declining employment, especially if combined with a less forgiving business survey.
Such a development could fuel recession fears and increase the likelihood of interest rate cuts – a boost for Bitcoin as traders anticipate easier financial conditions.
Although the weekly statements usually generate Bitcoin volatility of 0.5-1.5%, the reaction could snowball if the data contrasts strongly with the comments of the previous Fed.
Producer Price Index (PPI)
The January Producer Price Index (PPI) will close the week, with headline and core readings expected to be around 3.0% year-on-year.
Following the release of the PCE last week, the PPI provides insights into inflationary pressures before they reach consumers.
A higher-than-expected core reading above 3.2% is likely to reinforce inflation fears and reduce interest rate cut bets. This scenario may reflect the weakness in the PCE seen recently, as Bitcoin pressures strengthening the dollar and increasing real yields.
In any case, the press below 2.8% will strengthen the momentum of lower inflation. Markets are likely to price in a more aggressive facility, weakening the US dollar, and possibly pushing Bitcoin towards $70,000.
As a release at the end of the month, the Proton Pump Index often confirms weekly trends. Combined with unemployment claims, this could lead to 2-3% volatility in Bitcoin if expectations are materially challenged.
with Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq and the US dollar is close From the multi-month highs, the macro remains the dominant narrative.
If this week’s data leans towards reconciliation, BTC could rise by 3-5%. However, uniformity can lead to the same decay. Liquidity expectations, not fundamentals, remain in control.
