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The price of Bitcoin has been trading almost flat in the last 24 hours near $68,000, reflecting continued indecision. The general trend over the last seven days still shows a slight decline, which highlights the absence of strong upward momentum. But the positioning of players in a forecast market shows a much more optimistic story.
Polymarket data revealed that the biggest result for February, at 17%, expects Bitcoin to exceed the $75,000 level. This option made the trend bet the most popular as the month approached its last week. However, market structure, chain activity, and whale movements suggest that reality may not align with this bullish optimism.
Forecast markets favor $75,000 – but hidden bearish divergence signals trouble
Data from Forecast Markets showed that the “above $75,000” option remains the most popular target for February despite falling sentiment. Trading volumes on PolyMarket for this bet exceeded $88 million, with millions of active liquidity.
In contrast, the probability of actually achieving a $75,000 result decreases by more than 50%, reflecting declining confidence.
Meanwhile, the next most likely option is “under $60,000” at 12%. This position revealed a growing divide in expectations. While a large number of traders are still hoping that prices will rise, a large segment of the market is preparing for a deeper correction.
This increased caution closely aligns with Bitcoin’s technical architecture.
The daily chart showed that Bitcoin formed a lower high between November 15th and February 16th. This means that the price was not able to fully recover during the last uptrend attempt.
In contrast, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures the strength of the momentum, formed a higher peak during the same period.
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Since Bitcoin was already in a downtrend, this creates a hidden bearish divergence. This pattern often indicates a continuation of the current trend rather than a bullish reversal. It shows that momentum has temporarily improved, but broader selling pressure remains.
Since the appearance of this deviation, the price of Bitcoin has already corrected about 6%. As long as this warning remains active, the probability of reaching the forecast market target of $75,000 remains limited.
Long-term investors reduced the pace of selling, but did not start buying
The activity of long-term Bitcoin holders helps explain why the prediction markets remain optimistic despite the rising risks. These investors may have held Bitcoin for more than a year. Their buying and selling patterns often determine whether Bitcoin will enter a sustained rally or an extended correction.
On February 5, long-term Bitcoin holders reduced their holdings by 244,919 BTC (30-day moving average), evidence of very heavy selling. As of February 21, this number had improved to 81,019 BTC. This represents approximately a 67% reduction in sales pressure.
This sharp slowdown in sales helps to stabilize the price of Bitcoin and explains why some traders continue to anticipate a coming rally.
Despite this, long holders are still net sellers overall. They have not yet reached the stage of accumulation. Their business has improved, but they have not yet provided the strong buying support needed to push Bitcoin to new highs.
This creates a neutral balance. Bitcoin can avoid an immediate collapse but it still lacks the strength needed for a major breakout that would push it close to $75,000.
The behavior of whales is shared
The positioning of the whales reflects more uncertainty.
The largest Bitcoin whales, holding between 100,000 and 1 million BTC, increased their holdings from 676,540 BTC to 690,000 BTC. This represents a collection of about 13,460 btc, and indicates a prudent purchase.
On the other hand, smaller whales with between 10,000 and 100,000 BTC reduced their holdings from 2.27 million BTC to 2.26 million BTC. This means that around 10,000 btc were sold during the same period.
This inconsistent behavior shows a lack of consolidated conviction, even if the net balance is slightly tilted towards consolidation. Some whales are preparing for a rebound, while others remain on the defensive.
At the same time, the distribution data of the cost of buying reveals a neck of major resistance between $72,600 and $73,200, with about 149,000 BTC accumulated in this range. These levels are also clearly visible on the price chart as a major resistance zone below $75,000.
When Bitcoin approaches this area, many holders may sell to be discovered. According to what has been observed, the aggregation power of the whales is not enough to absorb the offer. This selling pressure represents a strong barrier that participants in prediction markets can underestimate.
The Bitcoin price structure indicates that BTC may be stuck between key levels
Bitcoin’s price structure has been closely tied to these on-chain purchase cost pools.
To reach the goal of the $75,000 forecast, Bitcoin must first cross the $72,200 level, this level represents technical resistance and one of the largest buying cost clusters on the chart. Breaking this zone would require growth of more than 6% from current levels.
In case of failure to break this resistance, the probability of continuing the horizontal movement increases. On the upside, there is a strong support zone between $64,300 and $63,800, where about 150,000 btc has accumulated.
On the Bitcoin price chart, the key support level similar to the area is $63,300, and breaking this level would also mean breaking the supply pool. A break of $63,300 could make the $60,000 area, a bet with 12% probability at Polymarket, a reality.
As a result, Bitcoin currently suffers from being sandwiched between two main cost base areas. Resistance near $72,200 limits the rise, while support near $63,300 prevents an immediate breakout.
This range suggests that forecast markets may be overestimating the potential for a breakout toward $75,000 while underestimating the growing risks of continued consolidation or correction.
