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The price of the polygon showed new signs of recovery after weeks of continuous selling. Since February 11, POL is up about 13%, and in the last 24 hours, it has gained about 5.4%, keeping most of its rebound near $0.095.
Note that at first glance, the structure resembles the setup that led to the 90% Polygon demonstration earlier this year. The price stabilized, the momentum improved, and the buyers seemed active near the support. But this time, there is a crucial element missing. The recent rally started after the vendors were completely liquidated. This time, this liquidation has not yet happened.
Before the end of January, Form a polygon Very clear background. Between December and the beginning of January, the POL price made a new strong bottom with a single move. The sellers gave up. Those with weak hands leave. This created a clean base for buyers to enter.
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Note that the structure this time is different.
Between January 31 and February 11, POL returned to a new low near $0.087, while the Relative Strength Index or RSI made a higher low. The RSI measures buying and selling strength, and these positive divergences usually indicate that selling pressure is weakening. But instead of a decisive candle, POL tested the same support zone twice.
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Two separate candles touched the $0.087 area. This created a “lower bass zone” instead of a clear lower bass.
Note that this is important. When the market makes a lower bottom in a move, it usually means that sellers have given up, suggesting exhaustion. When the price repeats the test of the same level, this means continued seller activity. The supply has not been fully absorbed. Therefore, even if the artistic style seems similar, the psychological state is different.
The market has stabilized, but not completely cleared. This incomplete liquidation of the sellers is the basis of all current change.
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This filter incompleteness is clearly visible in the financial derivatives data. During the January rally, leverage initially exploded.
Open contract interest on Binance has grown from about $16.6 million to more than $40 million, an increase of more than 140% in just a few days. Traders rushed to enter purchase offers as soon as the price changed. This time, it didn’t happen. Since February 11, while Pol coin has made gains At about 13%, open interest remained close to $18.80 million. A strong build-up of leverage has yet to occur. This may indicate weak confidence among traders.
Importantly, the financing rates are now negative, close to -0.012. Funding rates show which entity controls the futures markets. Negative rates mean that traders who are short pay those who are long. This indicates an increase in bearish positions.
In January, the financing rates were positive. Traders bet heavily on the side. Now, the short positions are starting to increase.
This is completely consistent with the price structure. Since the sellers are not completely closed, traders are still comfortable betting against the bull. They see downside risks that haven’t gone away yet. So instead of chasing long trades, many sit for a correction. This is a strong blow to the market’s belief in the current bull.
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This keeps the lever under control and the torque in check. The uptrend continues, but under constant pressure.
While traders remain cautious, the big holders are behaving differently. Since the beginning of February, whale stocks have increased from about 7.5 billion to about 8.75 billion pol, an increase of about 16%. This shows that long-term buyers are quietly continuing to accumulate.
Their buying is the main reason why the price continues to bounce from the $0.087 area.
But the grouping of whales has another effect. Absorb the offer without causing panic. Instead of taking out the weak sellers, the whales gradually take their coins. This maintains the price but delays the surrender. It should be noted that during the last initial demonstration in 2026, they did not rise Polygonal whales Significantly increase their possessions.
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So the market ends up in a middle zone:
That is why the price increases gradually and not explosively. This may limit the possibility of the bullish wave continuing in the future.
As the selling pressure continues in the system, price levels are now becoming more important than patterns. On the upside, the key level is $0.11.
A net break above $0.118 would indicate that the remaining sellers have been outperformed. From current levels, this would be an additional 24% move. This will likely attract leverage and weaken short positions, ultimately completing the purge. After that, the targets open towards $0.137 and $0.186.
On the upside, the critical support area is between $0.083 and $0.087. If the pole breaks below, the lower bottom pattern fails, and a new pattern will begin to form. This will confirm that the sellers are still in control and that the incomplete release remains. In this case, the price may fall towards $0.072 and $0.061.