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Hedera Network token HBAR has outperformed the overall cryptocurrency market. While Bitcoin and Ethereum are up over 2% over the past day, today’s HBAR price is up about 10% over the past week and about 8% over the last 24 hours, trading near $0.096 at the time of writing.
This growth raised the expectation of a price cliff. But momentum indicators, volume and derivative data suggest that risk is increasing faster than belief.
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Hope grows that the falling wedge will explode, but with a risk
HBAR has been trading in a falling wedge pattern since late 2025.
Since early February, HBAR has rebounded from near the lower boundary of this range and is climbing towards the upper trend line near $0.098. This level restricted the price several times and now acts as major resistance.
If it is hacked HBAR Keep trading above this area. The wedge measurement movement indicates an increase of more than 50% from current levels. However, momentum is beginning to weaken. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) measures buying and selling strength. When the RSI rises, the momentum improves, and when it weakens, the momentum decreases.
Between February 6th and February 12th, HBAR had a hard time breaking $0.098 decisively and started to form a potential lower. At the same time, the RSI continued to record higher highs.
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This creates a negative hidden divergence, and occurs when the price fails to confirm the improvement momentum. This often indicates that buyers are approaching saturation near resistance.
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This does not indicate a trend reversal, but shows that the efficiency of the upside decreases when the price approaches a critical level. The risk of divergence disappears if you touch a candle Current HBAR price $0.098 level, invalidating the lower theory.
Fund flows and derived data show risk factors
Money and leverage indicators have confirmed this warning. The CMF is one of the key metrics, tracking whether there are large capitals entering or leaving an asset by combining price and volume. When the CMF remains above zero, there is strong institutional buying. When it remains below zero, the main flows are absent.
HBAR’s CMF index was recorded to have risen between December 31 and February 11 while the price had fallen. This gap has supported the recent harvest. The CMF has also broken above its downtrend line, but is still below the zero line.
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This means that the selling pressure has subsided, but there are still no strong accumulations. The rally is still driven primarily by short-term traders rather than large portfolios. Derived data adds more risk. Open interest measures the total value of active futures contracts. As it grows, market leverage increases.
Since February 11th, it has seen HBAR’s open interest grow from about $26.96 million to about $29.38 million, an estimated 9% increase in one day. This jump happened when the price approached the resistance. At the same time, financing rates have become very positive.
It was also recorded that funding went from about -0.018 to about +0.05 in 24 hours. This shows that long positions are accumulating quickly. There is also a gap between price and leverage.
The price of HBAR made a local peak on February 8th and another on February 12th. The second peak is lower, indicating weak price strength. But open interest recorded a higher peak during the same period. Higher leverage enters the market even as price momentum declines. This combination often precedes a price correction. As leverage grows near resistance and momentum weakens, small pullbacks can cause forced liquidations.
It is enough to describe that the risk increases while the conviction remains weak.
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Key levels will determine whether the HBAR price will break out or pull back
Notice that as optimism collides with weak participation, price levels are now more important. The main catalyst for growth remains $0.098.
This level corresponds to wedge resistance and recent highs. Penetrating it and holding on to it eliminates the downward gap and reduces the risk of the playoffs. If this happens, HBAR heads to $0.107 first, followed by the area of ​​$0.145, which could achieve the wedge target.
Confirm that the real request is returned in this case. Until then, keep the demonstration vulnerable. On the upside, $0.090 represents the first major support. Note that this level has held several times during the recent consolidation. A decline below often led to a long liquidation.
Look below $0.090, the next major support is centered near $0.076. If the price reaches this zone, this will eliminate about 20% from the current levels and indicate the failure of the discovery attempt.
