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BitMine Immersion Technologies is entering a high-risk phase as paper losses on its Ethereum holdings continue to deepen. The stock has failed to sustain recent rebounds, while technical and cryptocurrency signals point to weak conviction.
As of February 10, Bitmain’s total invested capital was about $15 billion. The value of its current portfolio has fallen to about $7.7 billion.
This means that about 49% of the value of their investment was lost on paper. Meanwhile, Ethereum is trading near $1,950, while Bitmain’s realized cost base is around $3,850. With an ETH price around 50% below the average buy level, most matches are still in deep decline.
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Cost and basis losses and hidden divergence indicate increased selling pressure
BitMine’s biggest weakness It has a shrinking margin of safety.
The price obtained shows where the company collected most of its profits from Ethereum. When the market price remains well below this level, companies are under pressure to reduce exposure.
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Current data shows:
- Average cost of ETH: $3,850
- Current ETH price: $1,950
- Unrealized loss: 49%
This puts BitMine in a weak position. Technical signals reinforce this risk.
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Between November 18 and February 9, the BMNR made lower highs on the daily chart, while the RSI made higher highs. The RSI tracks momentum by measuring buying and selling strength. When the price makes lower highs, and the RSI makes higher highs, a hidden bearish fork is formed. This indicates a weak momentum below the surface.
Shortly after this divergence appeared, sales resumed. BMNR has recovered about 26% from its January lows. But the rally has failed to hold and is now at risk of a pullback, driven by the divergence and increased cost base pressure.
The poor flow of funds and migration risks show a declining confidence
The big funds are showing the first signs of hesitation. Chaikin Money Flow, or CMF, tracks whether large investors accumulate or distribute. Values ​​above zero generally indicate buying. Values ​​below zero indicate selling pressure.
Between late November and early February, the CMF index saw an upward trend despite falling prices. This has shown long-term support, but it still remains. But even during the recent 26% recovery, CMF failed to cross the downtrend line. It also failed to get new numbers and even cross the zero line. This means that the rally lacked strong support from large portfolios, and the current trend is still inclined towards the exit from large funds.
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Mobile media adds another caveat. The 100-day EMA is now close to the 200-day EMA. The Exponential Moving Average (EMA) gives more weight to recent prices, making it useful for spotting early shifts in trends.
When short-term averages move below longer-term averages, this often indicates deeper weakness. First, on January 27, a bearish (death) cross occurred when the 50-day EMA fell below the 200-day EMA. After that signal, BMNR fell by more than 44%.
If another bearish cross is found, the downward pressure can accelerate, although it does not have the same effect as a death cross. This risk increases if Ethereum remains weak. BMNR still shows moderate correlation with ETH Close to 0.5.
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The continued weakness of ETH can directly affect the stock.
Key Bitmain stock levels show where the next collapse could start
with Increase cost base lossesThe price structure of BitMine shares is now crucial. The most important short-term support is near $17, just over 10% from current levels. This level served as a base during recent mergers.
If BMNR loses $17, the downside momentum may increase sharply.
Below this area, the next support appears near $15. If this fails, the Fibonacci forecast points to $11, which represents the 0.618 retracement level, which is a historically strong level. A move towards $11 represents an additional decline of more than 40% compared to current levels.
On the positive side, recovery is still difficult. It must be restored The price of BitMine shares $21 for instant stress relief. This level corresponds to the previous resistance.
Just above $21, the short-term structure begins to improve. A move towards $26 would require stronger Ethereum prices and renew significant financial demand. For now, both remain unconfirmed. As long as ETH trades well below BitMine’s cost base and fund flows weaken, rebounds are likely to face a significant selloff.
