Ethereum price hits downside target – but is there a bigger drop to $1,000 to come?

Ethereum price reached its downside target near $1,800 in early February. It also fell to $1,740 before rebounding. Since then, eth has recovered almost 23%, giving traders hope that the worst is over.

But prices bounced in closed trends often seem strong at first. We must now ask whether this rebound is supported by strong buyers. Charts, chain data and technical indicators now indicate that support remains weak. Several warning signs remain that indicate negative risks.

The drop in the price of ETH worked, but the recovery lacks real steam

On February 5, Ethereum completed a major breakout pattern on the daily chart, as predicted by BeInCrypto analysts. This pattern generally indicates that sellers control the market. The expected target was close to $1,800. The price of Ethereum followed this path and fell to $1,740 on February 6.

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After reaching this zone, eth rebounded by about 23%. At first glance, it appears that there is strong buying at the time of the decline, as the price candle of February 6 showed a large descending tail. But the moment tells a different story.

Between February 2 and February 8, the price recorded lower highs. At the same time, the relative strength index (RSI), which tracks short-term momentum, rose.

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This creates a subtle bearish divergence, where momentum improves but price fails to follow.

In simple words, the price has had a hard time going up, even if the short-term momentum looks better. This usually means that sellers are still active in the background. Therefore, although the goal of decomposition has been achieved, the rebound has not yet shown a strong conviction.

This failure to continue aggressively paves the way for the next risk.

The short-lived rally has broken into another bearish pattern

Due to the lack of strong follow-up in the rebound, the structure of the next move should be monitored. On the 12-hour chart, Ethereum is forming a bearish flag and a bearish flag pattern.

Start with a sharp drop in price, then recover in an ascending channel. This is a classic continuation pattern in downtrends.

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This often leads to another decline as the volume confirms the risk. The On-Balance Volume index, which tracks actual buying and selling activity, remains weak. It does not grow as fast as the price. This means that fewer real buyers support the recovery. Moreover, the OBV indicator itself is close to breaking its upward trend line. If the volume decreases, this pennant model may fail.

This could lead to deeper losses of around 50% from lower trendline levels. To understand that the buyers, who led the 23% recovery, can prevent this, one must look at the data on the chain.

Are short-term traders buying while long-term holders are selling?

Data on the chain shows that the recent recovery is mainly driven by short-term traders, not long-term investors.

Considered a key indicator here is the NUPL ratio to short-term Ethereum holders, which measures whether new buyers have a profit or a loss.

At the beginning of February, with Ethereum falling to $1,740, the NUPL indicator for short holders fell to around -0.72, putting it decisively in the capitulation zone. This reflected large unrealized losses among new buyers.

During the 23% recovery, the NUPL index recovered to around -0.47. This represents an improvement of about 35% from the bottom. While the index remains negative, the speed of this recovery shows that many short-term traders rushed to buy the dip.

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This pattern mimics the failed bottom formations that have occurred before.

On March 10, 2025, the NUPL index also recovered to around -0.45 while Trading Ethereum Close to $1,865. At that time, many traders believed that a bottom had been formed. A more sustainable bottom appeared only on April 8, 2025 when the NUPL index fell to about -0.80, about 75% deeper than the March level. This stage was the beginning of real fatigue for the sellers and preceded a sustained recovery. The price at that time was about $1,470.

Compare the structure today to what it was in March 2025 than in April 2025. Note that the losses have cleared very quickly, indicating that the panic has not completely subsided. Also note that long-term holders remain cautious.

The 30-day net position change index, which tracks investors holding eth for more than 155 days, showed that it remains negative. On February 4, flows reached around -10,681 eth. By February 8, these flows had expanded to about -19,399 eth.

This represents an increase in net sales of approximately 82% in just four days. This suggests weak conviction at these current levels. The rebound is mainly driven by short-term traders chasing the rally, while longer-term investors continue to reduce their exposure.

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The main points of the article on Ethereum price levels show why the risk of $1000 remains

All technical signals and network behavior now point to a weak structure. Ethereum must regain key resistance to stay safe. The first resistance is located at $2,150.

Staying above this level will ease the pressure in the short term. The main invalidation level 2 is $780.

Only a move above this level will actually break the bearish structure. On the other hand, the risk remains high.

The most important levels of support are:

• $1,990: Short-term support
• $1,750: Fibonacci support
• $1,510: Major correction zone (near April 8, 2025 low)
• $1,000: Expect a bear flag

A daily price close below $1,990 will weaken the rebound. Breaking the $1,750 level will be… It reveals the eth price area at $1,500. If the bearish flag is completely broken, the price will head towards $1,000 according to the forecast.

This means a decrease of about 50% from current levels. Ethereum is currently under major resistance.

Note the double size. Long-term holders of Ether are selling. Short term traders dominate the activity. Until these conditions change, the risk of a much deeper price move for ether remains real.