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The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen by 22.5% in the past month. The coin briefly fell to its lowest level in more than a year last week before making a comeback.
This decline has given rise to debate about historical cycles, technical indicators and on-chain data that can indicate where the current Bitcoin bear market will bottom out. With uncertainty growing, many analysts are now focused on key price zones below $40,000.
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Bitcoin Bottom Forecast: Analysts Point to Key Levels
BeInCrypto Markets data showed that the largest cryptocurrency Digital fell to $60,000 in February 6. Prices later recovered, with Bitcoin trading at $70,354 at the time of writing. +1.20% more today
A recent report from 10x Research indicated that the broader trend remains in place despite emotional and technical indicators approaching extreme levels.
Meanwhile, the flow data suggests that investors remain cautious. Continued withdrawals from ETFs and increased stablecoin conversions indicate a lack of appetite for aggressive low buying.
Site books 10x Research notes that “the dynamics of positions suggest that traders are still focused on lowering trades and preparing positions rather than preparing for a normal quick rally.”
As the uncertainty continues, attention has turned to identifying a potential fund of Bitcoin. Many analysts believe that further declines cannot be excluded, with an increasing focus on price areas below $40,000.
The RD analyst examined the Fibonacci retracement levels associated with the bottom of the previous cycle. He noted that Bitcoin reached the lowest level at the 78.6% Fibonacci mark during the bear market 2022. This level is currently close to $39,176, which indicates … To the possibility of further decay.
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Historical trends provide another clue. Highlight Analyst Nihal cited historical decline data showing that Bitcoin hourly markets have become progressively less severe over time.
According to the analysis, Bitcoin fell by 93% in 2011, 86% in 2015, 84% in 2018, and 77%. During the 2022 recession. Based on this model, Nihal argued that the declines of each cycle were about 7% lower than the previous cycle.
Applying this framework to the current cycle, the analyst suggested that if Bitcoin peaks near $126,000, a decline of about 70% would mean a potential bottom near $38,000.
The data on the chain is also important. Analyst Ted Bellows said that the price of the long-term investigation by the Holder, which tracks the average cost for long-term investors, shows that the cycles of the cycle typically occur when prices fall 15% below that number.
With the current expected price at around $40,300, the model is aiming for a potential bottom near $34,500.
“I personally don’t think we can go that low,” He added.
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Also, another analyst sees Bitcoin hitting the full bottom at $30,000 by the end of 2026 before… That starts an aggressive growth Multi-year new year.
Because some analysts say Bitcoin can never fall below $50,000 again
At the same time, Some market commentators argue that The bottom of the Bitcoin market may have already been entered, defying widespread expectations that another deep bearish phase is still ahead.
A pseudonymous analyst said that Bitcoin often falls close to levels that most investors do not expect, pointing to previous cycles in which market lows are formed below previous historical highs.
“Most people believe that Bitcoin still has “another big crash” and that the “bear market” has just begun. $40,000. $35,000. Some of them are waiting for up to $20,000. This belief alone is why it probably won’t happen,” he said. Post .
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According to analysts, the structure of the market has changed due to factors such as Bitcoin spot funds and increased institutional participation, which can affect the behavior of Bitcoin during the market downturn, making a movement below $50,000 less likely.
“Why Bitcoin under $50k no longer makes sense … Will the institutions that launch ETFs, pool billions of dollars of capital, educate shareholders, build infrastructure … allow Bitcoin to revisit the levels that invalidate its hypothesis? Unlikely. Can we face volatility? Of course. Can we face scary pullbacks? Of course. But structurally? Bitcoin does not need a change of sentiment of 50 thousand dollars.
Analyst Darkvost also revealed that Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio has entered an area that has historically been associated with the last phases of bear markets.
“This type of dynamism is exactly what appears near the rotation areas in the market. We are gradually approaching an area where this trend is historically reversed.” He declared analyst
However, he warned that this does not mean the end of the bear market. Instead, it indicates that Bitcoin It’s approaching a milestone The risk-return profile becomes more extreme.
The analyst added that this phase can continue for several more months and that more price drops are still possible before a tangible reversal.
