Physical Address
304 North Cardinal St.
Dorchester Center, MA 02124
The price of Solana registered a strong recovery after one of its biggest drops. After breaking its bearish pattern on February 4, Seoul fell to around $67, a drop of almost 30%. Since then, the token has recovered more than 15%, climbing back towards the $78 area.
The recovery initially showed encouraging signs. However, network data suggests that this recovery may be driven by short-term speculation rather than strong long-term demand. Historical patterns have shown that similar price recoveries often fade quickly when aggressive speculative liquidity enters. Current measurements show that Solana may be vulnerable to further decline if a key level is not recovered.
Sponsored
Sponsored
The collapse of the descending channel caused a decrease of 30%.
Solana’s selling accelerated after the price broke the lower trend line of its descending channel decisively on February 4. In line with the previous analysis of the price of sol.
After lower trendline support failed, Seoul quickly moved toward its expected downside target near $67, completing a nearly 30% decline from its recent highs.
Get more code analysis like this! Subscribe to editor-in-chief Harsh Notaria’s daily cryptocurrency newsletter here.
After reaching the area of ​​$67, buyers intervened and pushed the price towards $78. This move represents a recovery of more than 15%, but the overall technical structure has not improved yet.
Similar rebounds have occurred in previous sessions after a large decline, but rarely form a sustained reversal unless supported by strong accumulations. So far, the current rebound lacks this confirmation as the purchase pattern is observed.
Short-term buyers are driving the recovery while long-term investors are reducing their exposure
Network data revealed that Solana’s repayment is mainly driven by short-term holders and not long-term investors. According to the HODL Wave Index, which breaks down portfolios by length of holding, the day-to-week category’s bid share increased from 4.49% to 6.08% between February 4 and February 6.
Sponsored
Sponsored
This represents a sharp increase in speculative participation in a short period. Historically, this category tends to sell off quickly during periods of weakness, making its buying activity unreliable as a basis for sustained recoveries.
A similar pattern emerged in late January. On January 27, short holders controlled about 5.26% of the supply. By January 31, its share had fallen to 4.38% as it sold during the weakness. During this period, Solana’s price fell from about $127 to $105, a drop of about 17%.
This behavior highlights how quickly short-term buyers exit when momentum fades. With its current share rising again, there is a risk of a return to the decline if selling pressure returns.
Sponsored
Sponsored
At the same time, long-term holders continued to reduce their exposure. Holder’s measure of net position change, which tracks long-term investors, fell from about 2.87 million soles on Feb. 3 to about 2.37 million soles as of Feb. 5.
This shows that investors who hold for more than 155 days are still distributing assets rather than accumulating them.
When short-term buyers increase their exposure while long-term holders exit, this usually indicates weak market conditions. This imbalance indicates that conviction remains weak and the rebound is not supported by strong capital flows.
Solana’s price levels show why the recovery is not proven
I reflected Solana price structure Apparent weakness in blockchain data.
Sponsored
Sponsored
Watch for the first major level at $93. The restoration of this area would require an additional increase of about 19% from the current levels and indicate a moral improvement in the structure of the market and also the confidence of the holders. Without a sustained break above this level, bullish attempts are likely to face selling pressure.
Note that above $93, the strongest resistance is near $105 and $121, where the previous breakouts occurred. These areas must be recovered before a medium-term recovery is confirmed.
On the downside, consider the $67 area to hold critical support. This level marked the last bottom of the session. A sustained break below $67 will expose the next downside target near $59.
Explain that if the $59 level fails, Solana could enter a deeper correction phase, bringing the lower support areas into play. This move will likely be accompanied by increased selling by short-term holders and continued distribution by long-term investors.
Expect Solana to claim $93 and the return of long-term accumulation to coincide with a drop in speculative activity, as the bounce remains technically and structurally weak. Under current conditions, price rebounds remain vulnerable to rapid reversals.
