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The price of MSTR has fallen by about 22% over the past month, paralleling Bitcoin’s decline of almost 23% in the same period. As Bitcoin’s weakness deepens, pressure on MicroStrategy’s massive Bitcoin bonds is also mounting. Recent estimates indicate more than $3.5 billion in unrealized, or “paper,” losses on their Bitcoin holdings.
The decline prompted some Wall Street firms to cut price targets, including a sharp 60% cut by a leading analyst. However, technical charts and capital flow data suggest that MicroStrategy’s long-term recovery is not completely broken. Here’s what the charts actually show.
The rising wedge and the rising CMF show that the big bucks are still buying
Despite recent losses, it continues Micro Strategy Daily Chart Trade in a falling wedge pattern. It often indicates that selling pressure is weakening and that a rebound may follow when resistance is broken. Also, the upper trend line is closed and currently corresponds to the 20-day EMA.
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Historically, this model has worked well with MSTR. In early October and again in mid-January, the stock rose 10% to 15% after retracing its 20-day exponential moving average, or EMA. The pure consumer rate is a trend line that reacts quickly to price changes.
As mentioned, the same economic average of 20 days is located near the upper limit of the cradle. This means that any breakthrough could happen quickly if the buying power returns.
Another key signal comes from Chaikin Funds Flow, or CMF. CMF measures whether large investors are putting money into an asset or withdrawing money from the asset using price and volume data. Since January 12, CMF has had a higher trend, even when the share price has fallen.
This creates an upward divergence. Prices fall, but large cash flows improve.
This is in line with recent reports showing that MicroStrategy Center in Bitcoin It carries unrealized losses of more than $3.5 billion. However, the big investors did not panic. Instead, capital continues to flow quietly.
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Together, the falling wedge and rising CMF indicate that institutional buyers are still looking for a recovery rather than abandoning the stock.
Analysts’ targets fell as buying pressure weakened in the retail sector
While big money supports michael saylor strategy, Wall Street sentiment is clearly weakened.
Canaccord Genuity, a financial services company, recently lowered Microstrategy’s price target from $474 to $185, a drop of nearly 60%. This downgrade may be related to the collapse of Bitcoin and the increased risks associated with the company’s treasury funded strategy.
Meanwhile, other companies continue to rate the shares as “Buy”, keeping the average target well above current prices. This led to a clear division in expectations.
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The reason for this dichotomy becomes clearer when you look at the Money Flow Index, or MFI.
The IMF tracks buying and selling pressure using price and quantity. It is often used to assess whether individual traders are buying dips aggressively or remaining cautious.
Between January 30 and February 4, the price of the Micro Strategy fell, and the Micro FE index fell at the same time. There was no sharp deviation on the climb. This means that individual buyers have not yet intervened aggressively. In simple terms, big investors are piling in, but small traders are still hesitating.
This conflict is the basis. Sustainable associations usually require institutional support and strong participation from the sales sector. Currently, there is only a clear part in presence.
This hesitation helps explain why some analysts are cutting targets, even as others remain optimistic.
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Key MSTR price levels to watch now
The final piece of the puzzle comes from price structure and support levels.
in order to MicroStrategy takes over technical powerFirst it must recover the area of $140. This area acts as psychological resistance and trend confirmation. A clean close above $140 would bring the price back to the wedge breakout zone and close to the 20-day moving average.
If the breakthrough occurs, the next major target will be near $189. This level is important for three reasons:
First, it lines up with a major Fibonacci retracement zone. Fibonacci levels often act as strong resistance and support areas where the price reacts. Second, it closely matches Canaccord’s revised target of $185, which shows that analysts are monitoring the same technical area.
Third, it is located near the middle of the recent consolidation bands, making it a natural price magnet. If $189 breaks, the full upside forecast for the wedge points down towards $225 to $230, representing about 63% upside from recent levels. This zone also corresponds to the minimum price of the analyst.
However, not recognizing $140 will weaken the entire bullish ranking. In this case, the risk of a crash will rise to $109, especially if Bitcoin continues to fall.
