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The price of Bitcoin briefly fell below $72,000 on Thursday morning in Asian trading hours, hitting its lowest level in nearly 16 months. As the sell-off deepens, the prediction market traders at PolyMarket are quickly revising their forecasts – and the data paints a worrisome short-term picture, even as long-term optimism persists.
PolyMarket real cash contracts show a market caught between defending a $70,000 basis and maintaining $100,000 annual income.
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February forecast: $70,000 is the dividing line
The February Bitcoin price contract with PolyMarket, with 24 days remaining and a turnover of almost $1.78 million on a target of only $70,000, tells a clear story.
The $70,000 contract rose to 74% probability – an increase of 65% – making it the most actively traded target for the month. The bullish outlook has collapsed: the $85,000 contract is down 61% to just 29%, while the $90,000 is down 12% and the $95,000 is down just 7%.
On the upside, the $65,000 contract fell from 13% to 39%, while the $60,000 contract remained at 19%. The probability of a drop below $55,000 is in the single digits. The implied range for February is $65,000 to $85,000, with $70,000 as the most likely point.
2026 Annual: Still optimistic, but eroding
The Polymarket long contract shows a more complex picture. The level of $100,000 has a probability of 55%, but it is down by 29%, while $110,000 is at 42% and by 29%. These are significant drops from a few weeks ago, when traders were pricing in a continuation of the 2025 rally.
The $65,000 2026 contract is 24% to 83% on turnover of more than $1 million – the highest on the table – suggesting traders are focusing on downside protection rather than bullish speculation. The upper curve slopes sharply: $130,000 at 20%, $140,000 at 15%, and $250,000 near 5%.
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What does this sale bring us?
Bitcoin was trading at around $73,199 at the time of writing, after briefly falling below $72,000 earlier on Thursday. The token is down 16% since the beginning of the year and about 40% from its October 2025 peak of $126,000.
Several factors are converging: escalating geopolitical tensions, data gaps remaining from the record 43-day government shutdown last fall, And the chairman of the Federal Reserve who has notTrade, which strengthens the dollar
The technical damage was severe. More than $5.4 billion in liquidations have occurred since the end of January, pushing open interest to a nine-month low. US Bitcoin spot funds have lost capital for most of the past three weeks, with an outflow of $817 million on January 29, $509 million on January 30, and $272 million on February 3, with a single day of $561 million on February 2 interspersed with them. Total net assets on available Bitcoin funds fell from more than $128 billion in mid-January to $97 billion.
decrease Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index at 12 – which is in the depth of “extreme fear” and its lowest level since November 2025. At the same time, the price of gold exceeded $ 5,000 an ounce, which indicates a broad evolution towards safe havens.
Conclusions
PolyMarket data provides an immediate window into how traders with money are at play. The February forecast is between $65,000-85,000 with almost no chance of recovering $95,000.
The annual contract is more forgiving, with a slim majority still expecting $100,000 sometime in 2026. But even that conviction is weakening. Currently, $70,000 is the number everyone is looking at.
