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Bitcoin posted a sharp decline to $73,000 on February 3, continuing a broader downtrend that has now erased 41% of its October 2025 high above $126,000. This decline has led to the escalation of the debate on whether the market is approaching a cyclical bottom or entering a deeper corrective phase.
This sell-off reflects growing anxiety in traditional markets. US stock indexes weakened amid fears of artificial intelligence-led disruption and rising geopolitical risks, prompting investors to shy away from risk assets.
In this context, the capital returned to… Traditional safe havens like gold and silverWhile Bitcoin has failed to attract defense demand.
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Economic and geopolitical pressures are pushing investors towards traditional havens
Bitcoin’s volatility continued to reflect macro sensitivities regarding isolation from global markets. The latest wave of decline has coincided with renewed tensions between… The United States and Iran Following reports that an Iranian drone was shot down near a US aircraft carrier.
This incident pushed the VIX index over 10%, and caused the index of fear and greed for cryptocurrencies to enter the territory of “extreme fear”.
At the same time, advances in artificial intelligence, including new announcements on… Anthropic’s cloud chatbot– to raise new concerns about disruption in the technology sector.
This uncertainty has weighed on major technology stocks and further reduced investors’ appetite for speculative assets.
While Bitcoin has declined, Gold rose 6.8% and silver gained 10%which strengthened their role as preferred hedging methods during periods of monetary and geopolitical stress.
Gerry O’Shea, head of global market insights at Hashdex, told CNN The divergence between Bitcoin and gold indicates that… Investors still see precious metals as the first safe haven During periods of uncertainty.
This change weakened Bitcoin’s short-term paradise narrative and added downward pressure.
Analysts are warning of deeper declines and a potential bullish trap
Market participants remain divided, but many analysts have publicly warned that the correction may not be over.
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argued the crypto analyst Benjamin Quinn That the short-term trajectory of Bitcoin is crucial:
Some other analysts expressed a more pessimistic view. Nihal, a prominent X trader, suggested that the current structure is similar to… Classic bull trapwarning that the downward movement can only be halfway.
In his historical comparison, Nihal said that Previous Bitcoin Sessions finished with cali 86% in 2018 and78% in 2021.
Applying a similar framework to the current cycle suggests the possibility 72% decreasewhich brings Bitcoin close 35,000 dollars.
This cyclical outlook remains influential despite structural changes in the market, including ETF adoption and greater institutional participation.
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The data of the series indicate a phase of “background research”.
Indicators on the chain add another layer to the discussion. The analyst said Cryptopus Until Bitcoin entered what I describe as a phase Background discovery For the first time in this course.
At the peak in 2025, ca 19.8 million BTC In profit. This number has now fallen to 11.1 million BTCwhich represents 40% decrease In a profitable offer.
Historically, similar conditions have marked a shift from correction phases toward a reset cycle. In 2018, Bitcoin remained in this state for about eight months before stabilizing.
Key technical levels under scrutiny
From a technical perspective, downside risks remain clearly defined. Nick, CEO of CoinBuru, confirmed that Bitcoin has been under pressure since it broke below the 50-week moving average in November.
Bitcoin is currently trading close Cost of MicroStrategy And close to the April lows around $74,400.
If we break lower, the next key level is $70,000, just above the previous high of $69,000, Nick warned. If a clear break is found below this level, it opens the door to reach the target of the bear market in the range of $55,700-$58,200, between the price obtained and the moving average of 200 weeks.
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Conflicting views on whether the bottom is near
He explained that not all analysts agree with the negative outlook. Michael van de Poppe believes that Bitcoin may already be close to the end of its decline.
Analyst David Battaglia, meanwhile, focused on the dynamics of liquidation, describing the current conditions as becoming more irrational.
Battaglia noted that below the $85,000 level, liquidity gaps were large, meaning that panicked sellers—both institutions and whales—were likely leaving at suboptimal prices.
Compare this case with The collapse of October 10 linked to Binance That he described as structurally cleaner.
Battaglia stated that between $90,000 and $100,000, there is a high density of short positions and an unbalanced “sell/put” ratio of 14:1, which under normal conditions already indicates a strong bottom.
In summary
Bitcoin’s fall to $73,000 brought fears of a deeper correction. Macro uncertainty, geopolitical tension and mixed signals on the chain have left the market divided between expectations of further decline and signs of an imminent bottom.
The coming weeks will likely determine whether this movement represents a pause – or the basis for a new trend for 2026.
