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The price of Solana continued to come under intense pressure in early February, as the coin declined by almost 30% in the last 30 days and began trading in an increasingly weak bearish channel. The price continued to move towards the lower boundary of this pattern as the long-term conviction faded.
At the same time, net hoarding activity collapsed, buying across the exchanges slowed, and short-term traders began building positions again. Together, these indicators suggest that more Sol has become available for potential sales as technical support weakens.
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The collapse of the storage meets the risk of breaking the downside channel
confirm Solana’s ultimate weakness Through a sharp drop in storage activity. The Solana Storage Variation Meter tracks the net weekly change in Solana closed in the original storage accounts. Positive values ​​show new storage, while negative values ​​indicate net storage being turned off.
The long sentiment is strengthened at the end of November. During the week ending November 24, storage accounts recorded net flows of more than 6.34 million soles, representing a significant accumulation phase.
This trend has now been completely reversed. In mid-January, weekly storage flows turned negative. The week ending January 19 showed a net destocking of approximately -449,819 sol. From February 2, this situation had worsened to -1 155 788 sol, that is to say an increase of almost 150% in unpacking in two weeks.
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This means that an increasing amount of Sol is blown away And back to the liquid circulation. Once they are not stored, these tokens can be transferred to exchanges and sold immediately, increasing the risk of downside.
This breakdown occurred while Solana’s price was trading near the lower edge of its descending channel with a probability of 30%.
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Watch for Solana to approach $96, as the combination of technical weakness and high liquid supply creates a dangerous situation. If sales accelerate, channel support cannot keep up.
Buying on exchanges slows as speculators increase exposure
The decrease in sticking activities is now reflected in exchange flows. The Exchange Net Position Change Index tracks the amount of Solana that moves to or from exchanges over a 30-day period. Negative values ​​indicate net flows and accumulation, while increasing readings indicate slowing demand.
On February 1, this indicator reached about -2.25 million solanas, which shows strong buying pressure. As of February 3, it had weakened to about -1.66 million solans. In just two days, the flows from the exchanges fell by about 26%, indicating a slowdown in the accumulation.
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This decrease in purchases coincides with an acceleration in foreclosures, increasing the amount of Solana available for trade. When supply increases while demand weakens, the price becomes more vulnerable to sharp declines.
At the same time, speculative activity increases.
HODL Waves data, which ranks portfolios by duration of holding, shows that the share of portfolios held from day to week rose from 3.51% to 5.06% between February 2 and February 3.
Similar behavior appeared at the end of January. On January 27, this group held 5.26% of the stock when Solana traded near $127. By January 30, its share had fallen to 4.31% with the price falling to $117, almost an 8% drop.
This pattern suggests that hedge funds position themselves for short-term rebounds rather than long holds, increasing the risk that those rebounds will fizzle out.
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The most important price levels of Solana also indicate the risks of $65
The technical structure continues to reflect the weakness seen in the chain data. SOL has been trapped in a descending channel that has driven the price lower since November. After losing the vital support area at $98, the price is now trading near $96, close to the lower boundary of the channel.
If this support fails, the next major breakout is near $67, based on Fibonacci predictions. A deeper decline could extend towards $65, consistent with a full 30% pullback of the channel.
On the side, he continues to have difficulty recovering. The first level you have to recover Solana It is $98, followed by a stronger resistance near $117, which stopped several rallies in January. It took a sustained move above $117 to neutralize the bearish structure.
Until then, keep downside risks high.
With the collapse of stakes, weak buying on exchanges, and a growing speculative trend, more coins of Solana have entered circulation as technical support weakens. If the long-term rally does not return, Solana remains vulnerable to a deeper correction towards $65.
