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Expect Strategy (formerly known as MicroStrategy) to announce its Q4 2025 earnings after the market closes on February 5, making Bitcoin’s fight to hold the $76,000 level more than a technical battle.
Bitcoin price performance has currently shaped the company’s earnings narrative, investor sentiment, and the credibility of the leveraged Bitcoin treasury model.
Bitcoin Technical Support at $76,000 Brings Budget Consequences for Strategy
At the time of writing on February 4, Bitcoin is trading at $76,645 after briefly falling to a daily low of $72,945 during the previous session.
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This move pushed Bitcoin uncomfortably close to… The average acquisition cost for the strategy is $76,052 Through his holding of 713,502 btc. This turned the $76,000 level into an accounting inflection point instead of just a level on the chart.
Break-even line with implications for profits
The application of the fair value accounting rules adopted in 2025 requires a strategy to put Bitcoin shares at their market value every quarter, allowing unrealized gains and losses to pass directly through earnings results.
Although the Q4 results will reflect higher Bitcoin prices in December – when BTC was trading above $80,000 for most of the quarter – the continued weakness leading up to the results announcement may be the dominant topic of discussion.
Current levels have made Bitcoin’s position in the strategy almost neutral. On the other hand, a continued decline below $76,000 can lead to the treasury experiencing obvious losses. When Bitcoin recently traded near $74,500, The strategy faced book losses approaching $1 billion.
Although these losses do not directly change the numbers of the fourth quarter, they cast a heavy shadow on the sentiment of investors before the earnings call and the comments of Michael Saylor.
Buy at high prices again-and the problem of impressions
Complicating matters is the recent buying behavior of the strategy. The company added Bitcoin in late January and early February at prices significantly higher than current trading levels.
The most recent batch, 855 BTC bought for an average of about $87,974, was preceded by a sharp drop over the weekend. Bitcoin payout under $75,000.
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Previous purchases in January averaged higher, including a segment near $90,000 and another above $95,000.
Please note that this model is not new. The strategy has historically been to increase the size of purchases during strong rallies, relying on equity issuance and zero-coupon convertible debt to raise funds.
Although this approach has paid off in full cycles, it has repeatedly exposed the company to heavy short-term losses, fueling criticism that the strategy often “buys the top” before correcting.
Echoes of the years 2021-2022
The current state is now compared to the aggressive purchase of the strategy in 2021, when the company accumulated tens of thousands of Bitcoin near the peak of the cycle. When Bitcoin collapsed more than 70% in 2022, the strategy incurred billions of dollars in unrealized losses and its stock fell more than 80%.
Although the company survived without a forced sale – and then benefited enormously from the 2024-2025 bull market – the episode highlighted the risks of volatility and dilution inherent in its strategy.
Economics professor Steve Hanke said that MicroStrategy owns the largest number of Bitcoins among all public companies. It recently recorded a loss of $299 million due to… Collapse of the cryptocurrency market. He said that this is what it is to invest in assets that are very volatile and fundamentally worthless. He emphasized that a small news could lead to very big losses. Host.
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That story is back with Bitcoin currently trading nearly 42% from its October 2025 peak of $126,000, shedding more than $1 trillion in market value over the past four months.
Kramer intensifies the criticism
The discussions became more heated, with Jim Cramer publicly calling on Saylor to intervene again, calling Bitcoin at $73,802 a “red line.” However, the strategy called for the issuance of zero-coupon convertible debt or another secondary offering to arrest the decline before earnings are announced, Host.
The strategy’s profits depend on it, Cramer wrote, asking what Saylor would discuss on the earnings call if Bitcoin doesn’t recover. Host.
Cramer continued the pressure hours later, representing the strategy as a de facto defender of the price of Bitcoin, a perception that conflicts with Saylor’s historical refusal to manage short-term price levels. Pointing.
Criticism and systemic concerns are mounting
Note that the pressure is not only from Kramer. Analysts like Paul Theory have commented on This decline was seen as evidence that something fundamental could be broken in the cryptocurrency market, while others took a much more aggressive stance.
The skeptic has long been warned Michael Perry Bitcoin’s continued declines could wipe out companies with large Bitcoin hoards. The analyst claims that Bitcoin has failed to act as a safe haven and could lead to a wider institutional crisis.
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More extreme critics went further, calling Strategy’s approach structurally flawed. They warned that leverage and dilution could threaten the entire model if the weakness persists for too long.
Why $76,000 still matters
Despite the noise, the immediate focus remains clear. Staying above $76,000 has preserved Strategy’s ability to see its gains as evidence of resilience, long-term conviction and discipline in holding during volatility.
Volatility is Satoshi’s gift to believers, Saylor said.
A drop below this level will drastically change the narrative, towards:
- Recording of unrealized losses
- Dilution resulting from previous rounds of financing, and
- It raises questions about whether the Strategy still has the financial flexibility to continue to accumulate without damaging shareholder value.
Watch the market closely with MSTR trading as a high beta alternative to Bitcoin and an upcoming earnings announcement in a few hours.
Whether Bitcoin stabilizes or declines further depends on no change in the long-term thesis of the Strategy, but it could crucially determine how this proposal evaluates this week.
