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Solana continues to come under sustained pressure after a long decline that began long before the recent market weakness intensified. This decrease in price gradually eroded confidence, prompting influential investors to adjust their positions.
Historical patterns now indicate higher risks. While signs of oversold are showing, the broader data still reflects a cautious outlook towards SOL.
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Solana’s bearers began to retreat
Solana’s net HODLer position change registered a downward trend. Declining green bars indicate that long-term holders are slowing down the rate of accumulation. This category usually plays a stabilizing role during corrections. The decrease in buying activity indicates a decrease in conviction rather than a strong distribution at current price levels.
Although the data does not confirm the active sale, it highlights the decrease demand from influential investors. Low accumulation usually restricts recovery attempts during oversold periods. Without new buying pressure, SOL can have difficulties In supporting the recovery, especially if broader market conditions remain fragile.
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HODL Waves demonstrate additional insights into investor behavior. Portfolios that collected SOL one to three months ago decreased by 5%. In contrast, the share of pregnant women between three and six months increased by 4.5%. This change shows that investors stuck underwater continue to hold despite unrealized losses.
Even if resistance stops, patience cannot be unlimited. Historically, prolonged bearish periods test the conviction of incumbents. If the price of Solana is weak Furthermore, these categories can begin to spread. This behavior adds downward pressure and reinforces the prevailing macro bearish trend.
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The price of SOL may see further decline
Solana coin is trading near $103, where it maintains the critical support level at $100. This level corresponds to the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Maintaining this area is important for short-term stability. However, failure to rebound puts the coin at risk of downside towards $95, which corresponds to the 178.6% Fibonacci level.
Momentum indicators reflect oversold conditions. The money flow index is approaching the oversold limit. Historically, any drop below this level has resulted in short-term rebounds. These rebounds often fail to reverse the general trend, leading to renewed declines after a temporary recovery.
In the short term, expect Solana to defend the $100 level or rebound towards the $107 resistance. A technical rebound remains possible due to oversold conditions. However, macroeconomic signals continue to favor downside risks. In the absence of strong demand, SOL looks vulnerable to another drop below $100.
The negative forecast is removed if Solana is able to turn the $107 level into support. The continuation of the upward movement may open the door towards $118. Maintaining this level requires a continuous flow and renewed confidence from investors. No return of capital TO SOLUpside attempts are likely to be limited.
