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XRP enters February under pressure. The token is down about 7% in the last 24 hours and about 5% in the past month, reflecting the growing weakness in the market. Historically, February has been a difficult month for the XRP price. The data shows that the average return in February is -8.12%, with an average decrease of -5%. In 2025, the token fell by about 29% during the same period.
This year, technical signals and on the chain indicate similar risks that are increasing. Meanwhile, selective accumulation indicators and early momentum suggest that a recovery is still possible. Here’s what the data shows.
Why are prices expected to fall?
XRP continues to trade in a long-term bearish channel on the 2-day chart. A descending channel is a bearish structure where the price makes lower highs and lower lows in parallel trend lines.
Since mid-2025, this model has kept earnings limited and pushed prices up continuously. As a historically weak February approaches, XRP is getting closer from the lower limit of the channel, which increases downside risks.
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Vasiliy Shilov, head of business development at SwapSpace, said seasonal patterns are still important but are no longer decisive on their own.
“Currently ETF flows are more reliable directional drivers,” he explained.
“Range-related movement is the most likely outcome if it doesn’t show total clarity,” he added.
But this technical weakness was not surprising.
Between October 2 and January 5, XRP formed a lower high, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) made a lower high. The RSI measures momentum, showing whether buying or selling pressure is increasing.
This divergence is called hidden bearish divergence. It often indicates that the upward force is beginning to fade before the correction begins. This signal appeared at the beginning of January and was followed by a decrease of almost 30%.
Now, a new setup is taking shape.
Between October 10 and January 29, the XRP price recorded a lower low (active at the time of publication) while the RSI indicator is trying to form a higher low. This creates the basis for an upward divergence, which may indicate trend exhaustion.
To confirm this reference:
- A two-day XRP price candle should form above $1.71, confirming a lower price setup
- The RSI should be above 32.83
If both conditions are met, the momentum of the downward attack weakens and the recovery efforts improve. If they fail, the downward channel remains in control.
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Money flow and whale activity show mixed signals
While going XRP price On the downside, capital flow data paint a more complex picture.
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which tracks institutional buying pressure and large portfolios, was rising between January 5 and January 25, even as the price fell. This forms a bullish divergence.
This suggests that larger players, perhaps institutional, were quietly hoarding XRP during the crisis.
ETF flow data supports this trend. Although January ETF inflows remained net negative due to the strong outflows on January 21st, net inflows steadily improved towards the end of the month. Recent green indicators show renewed interest from institutional channels.
Shilov said ETF volatility in January reflected broader macro caution rather than structural weakness in demand for XRP.
He explained that although macro pressures have pushed investors towards safer assets such as gold and silver, XRP spot funds have attracted more than $1.3 billion in total inflows since launch and have not recorded a month of net redemptions.
“The volume and persistence of flows suggest that a trend reversal is unlikely at this time,”
However, this optimism is challenged by exchange rate data.
The balance of XRP exchange flow has increased greatly since January 17, going from -7.64 million to +3.78 million. What is even more troubling is the pattern.
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Three consecutive flow peaks appeared on January 25, 27 and 29. A similar structure was formed earlier in the month on January 4, 8 and 13. After that, XRP fell from $2.10 to $1.73, a drop of about 18%. This makes the current structure of the inflow a clear signal of risk despite the ETF optimism.
Shilov added that demand for ETFs alone is not strong enough to fully isolate XRP from broader market forces. Based on the trading data of SwapSpace, he said that the short-term movements of XRP continue to follow the trend of Bitcoin and risk the general risk when the flows of index funds become unstable.
“Bitcoin’s direction, macro pressure, and derivatives position will likely determine risk appetite in the near term,” he noted.
XRP whales offer an interesting perspective
Pisces behavior adds another layer.
Wallets exceeding 1 billion XRP have been accumulating continuously since the beginning of January, when the price correction began. Their holdings increased from 23.35 billion to 23.49 billion XRP, representing a significant capital investment during the period of weakness.
Unlike last year, when giant whales waited until the end of February to buy, they are building positions before this cycle. This reduces the likelihood of a deep collapse, but does not eliminate short-term downside risks.
Shilov warned that the accumulation of adult crops should be seen in context. He said that current models resemble tactical positioning more than solid conviction.
“Sustained accumulation should continue alongside steady ETF flows,” he said.
“Unfortunately, procurement could dry up quickly if too much pressure develops.”
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The signals are mixed, which explains the fall of 5% in January and not something as aggressive as approaching 15% in December 2025.
Key support levels, downside risks and XRP price recovery scenarios
XRP price structure It now shows the critical levels. The first zone that XRP should defend is $1.71 to $1.69. A two-day close below this zone will weaken channel support and pave the way for a larger collapse.
If that happens, the next major support will be near $1.46. A sustained move below $1.46 could accelerate selling and expose XRP to deeper declines towards $1.24.
This scenario becomes more likely if exchange flows continue to increase and demand for ETFs fails to strengthen.
On the positive side, recovery depends on a level. XRP should recover $1.97 based on a two-day close. This represents a break above short-term resistance and indicates that buyers are taking back control. This XRP level was highlighted yesterday by BeInCrypto analysts.
A confirmed move above $1.97 could open the way towards $2.41, which is in line with Fibonacci levels and key channel resistance.
In the future, Shilov said that the strongest confirmation of an upward breakout would be the return of sustained flows to ETFs similar to the launch period in November.
“Weekly inflows between $80 million and $200 million will build strong momentum above $2.10,” he said.
He also hinted at a possible split level, which lines up perfectly with our analysis:
“Further deterioration in global geopolitical or macropolitical conditions could exacerbate the decline in XRP’s price and push the asset below $1.70,” I shared.
The battle is now centered around the $1.69 support and the $1.97 resistance. Whichever breaks first will likely determine the XRP price direction for the rest of February.
