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Enter the price of Ethereum in February 2026 at a critical crossing. After losing nearly 7% in January, eth closed the month in clear contrast to its historical pattern. The average return in January is about +32%, but this year prices have trended in the opposite direction. As of February, it has achieved intermediate gains of around +15% since 2016.
Point out that the last time Ethereum entered February in a similar situation was in 2025. In that year, the weakness continued to register a monthly decrease of 32%-37%. Whether 2026 follows the same path or deviates from it will be determined by the interaction of technical architecture, chain data and business flows in the coming weeks.
Ethereum’s February history and the falling wedge pattern set a high test
Looking at long-term data helps put expectations into perspective. Since 2016, Ethereum Registry An average February return of around +15%. Not the strongest month, but achieved more gains than losses.
January tells a different story this year.
Instead of achieving an average gain of +32%, eth closed January 2026 almost 7%. This brings it closer to the 2025 model, where the initial weakness continued into a decline in February.
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Enter ethereum February is at a crossroads.
However, not all analysts believe that seasonality should be used as a reliable guide.
The analytical team at b2binpay, the complete crypto ecosystem for businesses, has warned against relying too much on historical patterns.
The b2binpay analytics team said that historical patterns are not something that should be trusted blindly, as most of them exist for relatively obvious reasons.
The team added that eth currently lacks immediate growth catalysts
The b2binpay team emphasized that there is no real reason to assume that February should bring growth, and therefore, it does not make much sense to expect February to maintain a “historical” upward meaning.
They also pointed to the past year as evidence:
The analytical team of b2binpay said that even if we look at February 2025 for example, Ethereum has fallen by 37%.
The current structure of the chart reflects this skepticism.
Analyzing the two-day timeframe, the price of Ethereum is still in a falling wedge. A falling wedge is formed when the price makes lower highs and lower lows. It often indicates weak selling pressure and the possibility of a trend reversal.
In this case, notice that the wedge is wide and choppy. If the breakout is confirmed, it will indicate a move of about 60%. This is a maximum goal, not an expectation.
Momentum adds an extra layer to the analysis.
Between December 17 and January 29, Ethereum is ready to record the lowest lows in price. During the same period, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remained near 37. The RSI measures whether buyers or sellers control the momentum.
When the price falls, but the RSI is not, selling pressure weakens. This creates a first bullish divergence.
If the price of the candle stops ethereum Coming above $2,690 and the RSI stabilizes, the probability of a reversal increases as a lower low is confirmed on the price. But confirmation is still missing, making blockchain data of utmost importance.
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The data on the chain supports the recovery, but the conviction is fading
Blockchain indicators provided the first major confirmatory evidence. Among the key indicators are net unrealized gains/losses (NUPL). NUPL measures paper profits/losses.
Currently, Ethereum’s NUPL is around 0.19, which puts it in the “hope-fear” zone.
This level acquires historical importance. In June 2025, NUPL fell close to 0.17 while Ethereum traded around $2,200. In the following month, the price rose to around $4,800, a gain of more than 110%.
By doing so, NUPL is in line with what the cone and RSI are indicating. Selling eases the pressure. Unrealized profits are reduced. This provides room to climb.
But the signal is still incomplete. It bears witness The lowest prices in the real market Usually when NUPL becomes negative. In April 2025, it fell to about -0.22, which constituted a complete surrender.
Today’s reading remains much higher than this, meaning there is more room to sell. This indicates temporary rebounds and not a market cycle reset.
The behavior of HODLers reinforces this mixed picture. The Hodler Net Position Change measure tracks whether long-term investors are accumulating or distributing. During January, this parameter remains positive.
The accumulation peaked on January 18 at about 338,700 eth. As of January 29, it had dropped to around 151,600 eth. This represents a decrease of more than 55%. Holders are still buying, but with much weaker conviction.
This fits with how B2BINPAY analysts describe the broader market environment.
B2BINPAY analysts said that demand and supply are currently balanced: buyers are ready to buy at approximately the same levels at which sellers are ready to sell… The market needs a clear impetus both up and down for the picture to be clearer.
Both the NUPL indicator and the bearer activity combine to confirm the repayment case, but show a weak conviction.
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The focus shifts to the next crucial group: those with big money!
Whales are piling up, but ETFs are still missing
Large holders send a stronger signal than institutional investors.
Whale supply data show the build-up continuing into January. At the beginning of the month, whales controlled about 101.18 million eth. By the end of the month, this number had risen to about 105.16 million eth.
This represents an increase of about 4 million eth. This reflects active buying during weakness.
Large portfolios continued to increase their exposure as the price declined from its mid-January highs. This supports the ETH bounce scenario proposed by NUPL and Wedge.
This is very different from 2025.
At the end of January 2025, whale assets amount to about 105.22 million ETH. By the end of February, this number had dropped to around 101.96 million ETH. This distribution coincides with Ethereum’s 32% collapse during February. Last year, he sold the whales. This year, they piled up.
However, inconsistent ETF flows show a more cautious story. Several days of strong flows were followed by large withdrawals. The end of January saw more than 70,000 ETH withdrawn.
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This means that ETFs have not joined the rebound wave decisively.
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John Moreau, commercial director of b2broker, a provider of global fintech solutions for institutions, sees the ETF’s behavior in January as reflecting tactical positioning rather than a complete exit.
Morio said the outflows from spot eth funds in mid-January looked less like a structural departure and more like a tactical rebalancing. The reversal at the end of the month, led by a strong inflow into the Fidelity FTH fund, suggested that institutional behavior had become more diversified. …Instead of comprehensively reducing risks, the flows seem to be fragmented between the two sources.
Murillo explained his opinion:
Murillo said ETF dynamics in January point to maturity rather than complete decline.
If this continues, derivatives ​​can dominate price discovery, a major risk for the price, Morello warned:
If February brings muted or weak ETF flows as derivatives activity continues to expand, the balance of the impact could shift from spot demand to leverage-driven price discovery, Morello said.
Morello said that February is likely to test whether the price of Ethereum is based more on the allocation of institutional spot or moment of derivatives.
The whales are currently showing optimism. While institutions remain cautious. This combination supports rebounds, but limits sustainability.
Ethereum price levels to be determined in February 2026
The previous nupl indicator shows that the bottom is not yet confirmed. The downside risk remains.
The first crucial price support for Ethereum appears to be near $2,690.
This is consistent with the support of the last two days and the previous assembly. If a close below $2,690 is clearly found, this indicates a return to sellers’ control. This opens the door for a drop towards $2,120.
Ethereum first needs to pass $3,000 to collect. This is a psychological and structural barrier. The price has failed to break above repeatedly since December.
Consistency above $3,000 gives a signal that confidence is returning.
The next resistance is shown to be located near $3,340. This level represented a ceiling for the rise from December 9. A meeting at this level means an important change in the price structure of Ethereum.
$3,520 becomes important at higher levels. If there is an advance and stability above $3,520, this confirms the restoration of momentum and paves the way for an increase towards $4,030.
