Probability of US Government Shutdown 75% – How will this impact Bitcoin?

The US federal government is headed for a partial shutdown, putting Bitcoin markets on alert. However, unlike last year’s 43-day shutdown, the small size of this potential shutdown suggests its impact on prices may be limited.

Six of the twelve spending bills have already passed, and with historical data showing that 60% of gridlock crises end in last-minute compromises, markets seem to be pricing in a scenario of limited disruption.

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The probability of closing at 75% with a bet of $13.3 million

According to Polymarket’s market prediction platform, The possibility of a government shutdown has come On January 31, 75% in the Asian morning time. The total amount of bets exceeded $ 13.3 million. The impasse came because of Democratic opposition to a Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding bill.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has said he will vote “no” on any legislation funding ICE until it is fully vetted and reformed. If an agreement is not reached by midnight on January 30, some federal agencies will stop working.

Partial closure: a different scenario than last year

This potential closure differs significantly from The closing occurred in October 2025. At that time, all 12 spending bills were blocked, resulting in a complete government shutdown that lasted a record 43 days. Now, six spending bills have already been signed into law.

According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, the Departments of Agriculture, Veterans Affairs, Commerce and Energy have secured full funding for the fiscal year. The Department of Homeland Security also got about $178 billion from the “One Big Beautiful Bill” passed last year. This allows the agency to continue its operations largely without interruption.

An anonymous market analyst known as the “Crypto Oracle”, who correctly predicted the closing days of last October before it happened, warned: It’s a complete shutdown It will send shock waves through traditional and digital markets. He wrote at the time that the shutdown would disrupt liquidity first and repair it later. Expect a Bitcoin correction 30-40% – then we can see the biggest rally of the decade. He set his downside target between $65,000-75,000, which he called the “fear zone.”

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However, Crypto Oracle’s predictions were based on a complete shutdown scenario last October. A partial shutdown may not drain liquidity from the markets to the same extent as a full shutdown.

During the blockade last October, the general treasury account of the United States grew to $1 trillion. This led to the withdrawal of about $700 billion of liquidity from the markets. BitMEX analysts described this as “risky asset deprivation of capital”.

Expect half of the appropriations bills to actually be signed into law this time. DHS also has $178 billion in reserve funds. The Treasury backlog – and the resulting liquidity contraction – would have been significantly smaller.

A last minute deal is always possible

It has been reported that historically, blocking crises are often resolved at the last minute. According to the SGX on X analyst, between 2013 and 2023, only three of the five closing crises actually occurred – this is 60% of last-minute trades.

SGX explained several reasons why such a shutdown could be avoided: the Republicans could defund DHS and pass the rest of the laws with a limit of 60 votes; Some Democrats are willing to secretly concede if the tougher border provisions are removed; A one-week shutdown costs the economy $4-6 billion with market declines of 2-3% – a political liability that neither party wants.

SGX noted that the historical pattern + economic pressure + exit plans from both parties = a likely deal by January 31 due to the DHS settlement, but described this as mere political representation with no guarantees.

Bitcoin remains stable despite uncertainty

Report that Bitcoin spot index funds recorded net inflows of $1.33 billion for the week ending January 23rd. However, analysts attribute this to several factors, including the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and the profits of large technology companies, and not just to fears of a shutdown.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $89,177 at press time, up 0.9% in the last 24 hours. The price remains about 29% below the October high of $126,000.