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The price of Cardano fell more than 20% between January 14 and 25, falling to fresh local lows. On the surface, this ADA decision seemed pessimistic and uncomfortable.
But beneath the surface, something completely different was happening. While the price of the ADA was falling, the big bucks were quietly staying. There are two positive metrics that explain why this decline is attracting buyers rather than panicking. How could the price of Cardano react next?
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The big bucks are piling up as the retail sector shrinks
The first signal comes from the behavior of the portfolio. The data shows that Senior ADA holders (whales) They do not sell anesthesia. Instead, they started adding pips next to the dips.
Portfolios holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA increased their balances after January 25, when the price reached a local minimum. Its collections grew from about US$13.59 billion to US$13.62 billion, even as the price remained weak. At current prices near $0.35, this accumulation represents more than $10 million.
Smaller, but still influential, holders also joined. Portfolios holding 1 million to 10 million ADA will briefly reduce exposure during the sale. But once the ADA price stabilized, they returned as buyers. Its balances rose from about 5.60 billion ADA to 5.61 billion, or about $3.5 million, in one day.
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This accumulation is important because it happened while the small ADA portfolios were moving, in the opposite direction. Smaller ADA wallets, holding between 100 and 10,000 coins, continue to reduce positions, showing hesitation and risk aversion.
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These lots started cutting jobs before 2026 and have been coming out ever since. This dichotomy is important. Big money tends to buy during fear, while retail is often sold to reduce stress.
Two optimistic metrics indicate that sales are losing steam
The second layer of evidence comes from the map itself. A momentum indicator shows an early reversal signal, something that fishing can look for.
It is the RSI, or relative strength index. The RSI measures momentum and helps determine when selling pressure is weak. Between December 18 and January 25, registration ADA price The lowest level is the lowest. RSI had no effect. Instead, the Frequent Sterilization Index formed a level above the bottom.
This is the usual bullish divergence. This indicates that sellers are losing control, even if the price still looks weak. These signals often appear before trend reversals, rather than after. When a lower low is formed, ADA price correction By more than 20% as part of the pole fall. The recent consolidation has formed a bear flag, but the strength of the RSI and the whale accumulation pattern suggest that a collapse may not actually happen.
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The second signal comes from the MFI, or Money Flow Index. The IMF tracks whether money is flowing into or out of an asset by integrating price and volume. Between January 21 and January 26, the price continued to fall. The IMF rose to a higher level.
This tells us something important. The dip is bought. When the price has fallen, money flows in rather than out. This supports what the portfolio data has already shown. There was significant money active during the delivery, without waiting for the part.
When the RSI indicator shows stable momentum, and the MFI indicator shows active buy-lows, the probability of a clean break decreases. This does not guarantee that a cluster will occur. But this greatly weakens the negative state.
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Cardano price levels that determine the next move
With signs of accumulation and momentum, Cardano’s price levels are now what matters most.
ADA is currently trading near $0.35. The first major technical hurdle is near $0.390. This area represents about half of the previous decline and corresponds to the critical Fibonacci level. A move above this zone will invalidate the bearish flag structure on the daily chart.
However, the first real resistance should be the 20-day EMA. The pure average gives more weight to recent prices and helps track the direction of the short-term trend. The last time the ADA found this moving average indicator, on January 2, the price rose more than 17%.
If ADA closes above the 20-day moving average again, momentum could change quickly. In this case, bullish levels near $0.427 to $0.484 come back into focus.
On the other hand, the risk is always there. A daily close below $0.339 will weaken the recovery. A price break below $0.332 will invalidate the bullish divergence setup and reopen downside risks.
For now, the message is clear. The 20% drop didn’t scare off a lot of money. He lured them inside. Two optimistic metrics explain why. Whether the price will continue depends on the next close of each day.
