Physical Address
304 North Cardinal St.
Dorchester Center, MA 02124
The predictive markets on PolyMarket now indicate that the probability of an end of January 31 is about 78%, a significant increase from only 10% three days ago.
Amid growing risks from another US government shutdown, investors are turning to safe-haven assets amid growing uncertainty. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index now shows “Extreme Bullishness”. The feelings returned to neutral less than a week ago.
Sponsored
Sponsored
The deadlock between American policy makers pushes the probability of a closure at the Polymarket higher
There is a growing partisan gridlock over funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). The increased odds coincide with Strong earnings in gold and silverin contrast to the patterns observed during The record closure lasted 43 days That ended in November 2025.
The House of Representatives passed a temporary funding bill by a vote of 341 to 81. However, Senate Democrats, led by Majority Leader Chuck SchumerPresentation of the bill. It should be noted that DHS funding, particularly for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), remains tied up.
“Democrats have sought common sense reforms in the DHS spending bill, but because Republicans refuse to stand up to President Trump, the DHS bill is woefully inadequate to curb ICE abuse. I will vote no.” He said Schumer in a post.
The impasse led to “data blackout”. Lagging economic indicators Like the consumer price index Employment reports complicate the Fed’s risk policies and models. This can push market volatility higher.
“The government will shut down in 6 days. The last time they shut down, gold and silver jumped to all-time highs. But if you hold other assets like stocks, you should be very careful … because we are heading towards a complete data blackout, “books NoLimit, a macroeconomic analyst and popular account on X.
In fact, Polymarket bettors see a similar result, betting with a probability of 76% on another government shutdown that takes place on January 31.
Sponsored
Sponsored
Includes similar bets possibility 77% for US government funding to expire on January 31st. If this happens, analysts expect four main threats:
- Deferred economic data
- Possible credit downgrade
- Liquidity freezes, and
- GDP contraction of about 0.2% per week if stagnation continues.
“Most people ignore this, but the risk of a shutdown is real. The deadline is looming, and funding talks are stuck. When the government slows down, everything else slows down with it. Salaries are delayed, contracts stop moving, and decisions are postponed. The markets always shrug off at first, and then suddenly they don’t. “, he added Decentralized financial researcher Justin Wu.
Precious metals were the most obvious benefits. Gold hit a new high still above $5,000 per ounceIt was trading at $5,041 at the time of writing. At the same time, The price of silver broke the $100 barrier For the first time, it was trading at $103.07 per ounce at the time of writing.
Sponsored
Sponsored
Far from safe order, The structural limitations of supplyindustrial demand for silver in the electronics and solar sectors, and broader geopolitical concerns are fueling the rally.
Historical precedents reinforce this tendency because Previous closing at the end of 2025The price of gold rose from about $3,858 to more than $4,100 per ounce. As for silver, it tested $54, reflecting a mix of risk-averse buying and uncertainty premiums.
As for digital currency markets, they have shown fluctuations amid uncertainty. bitcoin, That fell by about 20% during the 2025 shutdown, which lasted 43 daysremains sensitive to liquidity shocks and lagging economic data, prompting investors to be cautious.
Sponsored
Sponsored
A prolonged shutdown could exacerbate pressures in the redemption and cash markets, as some punters expect It continues Possible government shutdown for up to two months.
Although the risk is high, the blockade is not inevitable. Congress can block it by passing remaining appropriations bills or extending funding through another continuing resolution.
“… We had the longest blockade in history just a few months ago… There is clearly no desire to repeat this event, ” she said Rachel Budd, co-host of The Huddle.
Recent partisan trades have lowered the odds, but with the Senate in session and less than a week before January 30, market participants are pricing in a high probability of disruption.
In this situation, bull market traders continue to make bets, and gold and silver prices rise. This is based on the perception that in periods of political gridlock and financial uncertainty, historically safe assets provide a temporary buffer.
However, it is also worth noting that markets can swing violently in any direction depending on the resolution of the standoff. Therefore, investors should do their own research.
