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CryptoQuant’s weekly report notes that Bitcoin holders are in the red for the first time in a long time, a notable shift that could coincide with the start of a broad crypto market downcycle.
he agreed ReportSince December 23, the net realized loss in the 30 days has been equivalent to approximately 69,000 Bitcoins, marking the first time since October 2023 that profit dynamics have turned negative within a monthly window.
He also noted that since March 2024, realized profits began to gradually decline and prices lost momentum.
Analysts believe the current pattern is similar to what will happen in the 2021-2022 cycle:
After peak profits in January 2021, a series of lower peaks began to form, before the market turned into a net loss.
Likewise, realized profits peaked in January 2024, followed by lower peaks later in December 2024, July 2025, and October 2025, until margins are now negative.
The report added that realized net profits have fallen from approximately 4.4 million Bitcoins in October 2025 to approximately 2.5 million Bitcoins currently, a level not seen since March 2024 and similar to levels observed in the early stages of the last bear market in March 2022.
The report also noted that demand has shrunk over the past 30 days, but there has been no significant change in physical market indicators or ETF flows, reinforcing the early reading of a decline.
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