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The XRP price is in a dangerous situation. At around $1.89, XRP is trading just 1% above a major breakout zone. On the surface, the scheme seems calm. Beneath the surface, many signs indicate that the risks are silent. What makes this setup unusual isn’t just the proximity of support. This is what has not happened before.
Recently XRP has posted a bullish signal which usually leads to at least a short-term rebound. This time, he barely moved. That failure is the real warning.
Hidden Positive Divergence Failure – Is It a Red Flag?
Between December 31 and January 20, fig XRP price A hidden bullish fork on the daily chart. The price recorded a higher low, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) recorded a lower low.
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A hidden bullish fork usually indicates weak selling pressure and that buyers may take control soon. This does not guarantee growth, but often leads to a rebound or at least a period of tremors.
This did not happen here.
After the divergence emerged, XRP went down. The price stalled, and the momentum never expanded. This tells us something important. Sellers may have slowed down, but buyers haven’t stepped in to replace them.
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This type of divergence failure often appears in weak markets. This shows hesitation, not strength. When a bullish signal fails, it usually means that the order was missed, not that the signal was false.
XRP’s bullish escalation structure still indicates a 25% upside potential if support breaks. With buyers absent and sellers gradually taking control, XRP is getting closer From a moment that even a small downward movement could lead to a much larger movement.
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Also, if the buyers don’t show up after the selling pressure eases, what happens when the sellers come back?
ETF flows and holder data confirm weak demand
The answer starts with capital flows.
For the first time in weeks, ETF products in XRP recorded net flows. The week ended January 23 saw a total outflow of about $40.5 million. This came after a long period of continuous inflows, making the change in behavior evident.
ETF flows are important because they reflect significant capital and trends. When flows stop and become negative, this usually means that institutional demand stops or decreases.
The series data tell a similar story.
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The XRP Hodler Net Position Change Index, which tracks the monthly balance change of long-term position holders, has stabilized and started to decline. On January 20, long holders controlled about 232.1 million XRP. By January 24, this number had dropped to about 231.55 million XRP.
This is not aggressive sales, but it is not growth either. After this difference emerged, the new holders did not adjust significantly. This confirms what the price action has already indicated. Buyers were not confident enough to commit.
When ETFs stop calling and long holders stop at the same time, rebounds tend to be difficult.
Whale selling keeps alive the risk of an XRP price collapse
While shoppers hesitated, one group took action.
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Wallets containing between 10 million and 100 million XRP will begin to reduce exposure. On January 18, this group had about 11.16 billion XRP. According to the last reading, its balance has decreased to about 11.07 billion XRP.
This represents a reduction of about 90 million XRP. At the current price of XRPThis represents a distribution of approximately $170 million.
This selling pressure also helps explain why XRP failed to respond to the hidden bullish divergence. It also explains why the price remains firm near the support. Technically, the danger is now clear.
A daily close below $1.85-1.86 will break the wedge support and activate the downside target. This opens the door to the $1.70 area first, followed by a deeper move towards $1.42 if momentum accelerates. This will approach the target of about 25% collapse.
On the upside, XRP needs to regain $1.98 to weaken the bearish pressure. This will provide short-term relief, but without renewed buyer participation, it will likely remain just a bounce rather than a trend turn. Currently, this defect is obvious. Sales are available. Buyers don’t do that.
