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The market has not seen billions of dollars being issued daily in stablecoins in recent months. In January 2026, the growth of stablecoins showed clear signs of slowing down. This signal raises questions about what the market may face next.
By comparing stablecoin trends with Bitcoin price movements and similar historical periods, several possible scenarios emerge. These comparisons help investors get a more complete view of potential risks ahead.
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USDT’s market capitalization is rising, raising concerns about a continued correction
USDT Market Cap Change Data from CryptoQuant tracks daily changes in the market For stablecoins driving
The 60-day moving average (60-day market change – SMA30) shows that the growth rate of the USDT market capitalization has decreased sharply since the end of November last year. Growth decreased from about $15 billion to about $3.3 billion.
When compared side by side with the price of Bitcoin, a strong correlation becomes clear. In previous cycles, increasing liquidity—reflected in rapid increases in USDT market value—often moved in tandem with Bitcoin’s rallies.
Conversely, when liquidity growth slowed down, Bitcoin usually entered a recession. In the worst case scenario, the market turns into a downtrend.
Although the 60-day market change – SMA30 has not yet turned negative, the latest signals from the 2026 market environment raise warnings.
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First, the market capitalization of USDT (ERC-20) – which represents… more than 50% Of the total supply of USDT – during the past month. Meanwhile, USDT has consistently traded below $1 during this period.
This does not indicate Decline of the USDT. However, the decrease in market capitalization, coupled with prices below $1, reflects capital flows. Stablecoin holders seem to be less interested in looking for new opportunities and more inclined to invest money.
Second, I burned the Tether treasure Recently 3 billion US dollars. This is the first fire since May of last year. CryptoQuant data shows that this was also the largest USDT burn in the last three years.
explain Some observers see the move as a sign of caution by major players amid macroeconomic uncertainty and rising geopolitical tensions. This process typically occurs when investors exchange USDT for US dollars, prompting Tether to remove the corresponding USDT from circulation.
Investor Ted: “A big guy crashed out of the market completely.”
These signals are still early and are not strong enough to confirm a final trend. However, if it rallies, the stablecoin market’s two-month slide could end At about $308 billion of the total capital and turns into a corrective phase.
In this scenario, you can meet Bitcoin and altcoins Increased risk of entering a bear market – something most investors prefer to avoid.
