Standard Chartered expects Bitcoin to rise at the end of the year amid sell-off signs

Bitcoin (BTC) fell again after falling below the psychological level of $ 90 000. In the middle of the current recovery, Standard Chartered signals that the recent sell-off is over.

Elsewhere, the president of BitMine, Tom Lee, says that if the price of Bitcoin can achieve a new high of all times this year, it will negate the fact that there is a four-year cycle.

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Bitcoin is poised for a year-end rally, says Standard Chartered

In an email to clients, the bank’s head of digital asset research noted that The last retreat “It’s nothing but a quick and painful version of the third party of the last few years.”

According to Geoff Kendrick, several indicators on the chain have reached absolute minimums, including… mNAV at MicroStrategywhich is now at 1.0.

“Recovery towards the end of the year is my base case,” Kendrick said in the email.

Chain analyst Ali noted that Bitcoin’s realized loss margin is currently at -16%, which is below the -12% limit historically associated with rallies.

https://twitter.com/ali_charts/status/1990760147291869505

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In addition, the SuperTrend Indicator The weekly chart, which has consistently shown major trend changes since 2014, has recently turned into a selling mode. Previous signals have led to average declines of 61%, indicating potential near-term volatility.

“Applying that average to the current market structure indicates a potential move toward $40,000,” the analyst said. said.

These mixed signals reflect a market stuck between historical correction patterns and bullish expectations from major financial institutions.

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Macro context: Liquidity versus opportunity cost

Despite the global M2 money supply increasing by $7 trillion by the end of 2024, Bitcoin has struggled to benefit from increased liquidity. EndGame Macro explained that while The global liquidity pool remains historically highMost of the capital is absorbed by issuing government debt and short-term instruments that offer returns between 4-5%.

The analyst noted Up to“Liquidity is taxed.”

It provides risk-free alternatives Tangible returnsSpeculative assets like Bitcoin face a higher opportunity cost.

This dynamic contributes to unstable trading, with strong bounces when short positions are crowded and …Sharp declines triggered by macro concerns. This reflects a more cautious investment environment.

Optimistic commentators argue that the current price of Bitcoin reflects its undervaluation, noting that the cryptocurrency could reach $150,000 in a continuous monetary expansion. At the same time, skeptics say… The connection between liquidity and the price of Bitcoin is no longer easyciting competing market forces and regulatory advice towards safer assets.

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Traders and investors should prepare for more sustained volatility as leverage is lifted and macro positions are adjusted.

Standard Chartered’s year-end forecast to be higher hinges on the assumption that sales have run out of steam. However, risks remain in the form of potential corrections or policy-induced market disruptions.

On-chain metrics, including stop loss spreads and SuperTrend signals, remain key indicators of entry and exit timing.

By the end of 2025, Bitcoin may have bounced back in line with institutional expectations or continue to trade as a volatile, non-yielding asset in a macro environment that increasingly rewards caution.

Investors should do their own research and monitor cash flowsPolitical signals To evaluate the next stage of the price movement.