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The price of Ethereum has fallen by about 7% in the last 24 hours and about 24% during the month. Traders are torn between anticipating a rebound or preparing for more weakness. But one of the key on-chain metrics shows a setup that looks almost identical to June — the same setup that sent Ethereum up 116%. The problem is that the deepest decline came first.
The question now remains if the same thing will happen again.
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A June reset is in order
To understand this structure, we need to look at NUPL, which is a measure of net profit/loss. It measures the amount of profit or loss that owners retain without selling. When NUPL declines sharply, it shows that the market is shedding weak hands and resetting before a larger trend change.
This pattern was repeated very clearly in June.
Here is the sequence:
- On June 5, NUPL was close to 0.24. Many thought it was the bottom.
- Ethereum has risen to $2,814 since June 10 – a weak Ethereum rally to mitigate.
- But from June 10 to June 22, NUPL fell to 0.17, and ETH fell to $2,230. That was the real bottom and a drop of 20.7% from the high dilution level.
- Since that point, ETH has risen 116%, rising from $2,230 to $4,829 over the course of two months.
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The current structure follows the same steps.
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On November 14, NUPL was again near 0.24, the same area it was on June 5. ETH reached $3,115, but the move lacked steam – just like the June 10 rally.
The sale is back, and…ETH is now trading lower. If NUPL follows the path it did in June and falls into the same reset zone near 0.17, the price forecast will reach around $2,470, according to the 20.7% correction path mentioned earlier. They note that NUPL has already reached 0.21 levels since November 16, and it is a strong downward trend.
Stock market activity suggests continued weakness
Exchange behavior also supports this idea. An exchange’s Net Position Change metric shows how much ETH is moving on exchanges. On November 6, flows were around 1.14 million ETH. By November 17th, this number had dropped to 574,000 ETH, a 50% drop.
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When outflows decrease rapidly, it usually means that holders are selling.
The NUPL model and the exchange activity together suggest an idea: Ethereum may need a deeper cleaning before… To start a strong recovery.
The key levels of Ethereum price charges are in line with the same goal
Ethereum is still moving in a downward channel that started in early October. The overall structure remains bearish, and ETH price movement Now it is located next to the next life support.
The first important level is $2,920. Losing this level at the end of each day confirms that the momentum is still with the sellers. If it breaks, the next major zone is right at $2,466 – the same level indicated by the NUPL reset calculations. That would be a significant decrease of 17% from current levels.
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This is the part that stands out:
- The model made in June indicates about $2,470.
- The current structure of the chart indicates $2,466.
When two separate systems land in the same area, traders may want to be careful.
A jump from $2,466 would not be surprising. The continued rise of Ethereum from this area would be less surprising, given what happened after June 22nd. But until I return Ethereum price recovery Higher levels, this logical test remains lower.
If Ethereum holds $2,920 and rebounds, the picture could improve. But now the structure is still leaning towards a final push before a major reversal. The recovery of $3,655 in the short term will invalidate this theory of decline for now. But then, it can only be a compensatory rebound seen after June 5.
