BitMEX founder: Bitcoin price may return to $80,000 under credit pressure

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicts that Bitcoin prices will test the $80,000 area again, and the market will enter a stage of credit pressure caused by declining liquidity and rising risks of highly volatile assets.

In his previous article, he pointed out that as the US stock index approached its all-time high, the price of Bitcoin fell from US$125,000 to US$90,000, which clearly indicated that a credit event was coming, especially since the US dollar liquidity index has continued to decline since July.

Hayes believes that U.S. stocks could fall by 10% to 20% and 10-year Treasury yields could rise, which could prompt policymakers to launch emergency liquidity programs to support stability.

If there is a wave of panic accompanied by new stimulus, he expects the price of Bitcoin to fall sharply to $800,000-850,000, followed by a strong recovery that could push it to $200-250,000 by the end of the year, according to his expectations.

Capital flows reveal market vulnerabilities:

Hayes asserted that part of Bitcoin’s recent price rise is not the result of actual institutional demand, but the product of erratic flows from hedge funds and banks that profit from basis trading between ETFs and CME contracts.

As spreads narrowed, these entities abandoned their positions, turning inflows into sudden outflows and confusing retail investors.

He also noted that the same phenomenon affects digital Treasury bonds, as their issuance ceases when the net premium turns into a discount.

With ETF activity slowing and DAT issuance declining, the market has lost two major sources of buying pressure unrelated to direct economic factors.

Despite the short-term warnings, Hayes confirmed that the long-term outlook for Bitcoin prices remains strong based on the possibility of expanded currency liquidity and what he sees as indirect approval from U.S. President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

He believes Beijing’s dissatisfaction with the U.S. seizure of Bitcoins linked to Chinese mines reflects China’s leadership’s recognition of the asset’s long-term value.

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