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Goldman Sachs expects global stocks to continue to rise in 2026, forecasting a return of 11%, including dividends, over the next 12 months.. This growth will support earnings growth and broad economic expansion.
As traditional markets continue to grow, a crucial question becomes clear: will digital assets move in tandem with stocks, or will they follow their own distinct path?
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Goldman Sachs Global Stock Forecast 2026
Goldman Sachs Global Equity Forecast for 2026 indicates… Additional increase for the main indices. According to the report, the global economy is expected to expand in all regions next year, with global GDP growing by 2.8%.
The US Federal Reserve is also expected to deliver Tessiyat modest additional growth this year, reinforcing the favorable macroeconomic background. On the contrary, Peter Oppenheimer, chief global equity strategist at Goldman Sachs Research, suggests that a major decline in stocks remains unlikely in the absence of a recession.
“We believe that returns in 2026 are likely to be driven more by underlying earnings growth rather than rising valuations. Our analysts’ 12-month global forecasts indicate that share prices, geared to regional market capitalization, are expected to increase 9% and return 11% with dividends, in US dollars (until January 6, 2026). “books Oppenheimer.
However, the company added that the stock’s earnings in 2026 are unlikely to repeat the strong increase seen in 2025. This suggests a more balanced pace of returns going forward.
“While stocks have done a lot in 2025… gains have not happened in a straight line. Stocks have underperformed at the beginning of the year, with the S&P 500 seeing a correction of almost 20% between mid-February and April, before recovering. emerging markets,” said the report.
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The report revealed the goals reached 7,600 for the S&P 500 (indicating a total return of 11%), 625 for the STOXX 600 (return of 7%), 3,600 for the Japanese TOPIX Index (return of 4%), and 825 for the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index outside Japan (return of 12%).
The analysis indicates that the shares are currently in the optimistic phase of the market cycle. This started with the bear market that occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. According to the team, this phase of late-cycle optimism is generally associated with rising valuations, which indicate potential risks for its central outlook.
The report also addressed the growing interest Actions related to artificial intelligence. Analysts have noted that the market’s focus is on artificial intelligence It’s still going strongBut they emphasized that this does not necessarily mean the presence of a bubble artificial intelligence .
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As traditional stocks enter 2026 with expectations of continued growth, attention is turning to the performance of the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency, Show in general Positive correlation with the indicator S&P 500, however It also saw periods of clear independence.
Examining last year’s data, CryptoQuant revealed that Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 has been largely positive. However, the correlation turned negative briefly between September and October, again in November, and twice in December.
“In the second half of 2025, the correlation of Bitcoin with the S & P 500 index fell sharply. This was not a temporary divergence, but rather the result of structural changes in the behavior of the market.” He indicated One of the analysts.
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The analyst attributed this to several factors:
- Bitcoin spot funds have shifted demand from short-term trading to allocation-driven flows.
- Leverage risk has decreased as derivatives markets experience higher margin exposure via Bitcoin.
- Overall liquidity has shifted towards commodities and precious metals, crowding out cryptocurrencies.
- Traders tied to short-term stocks exited the market, leaving a base of long-term holders.
- Bitcoin price movement has become more influenced by internal supply dynamics than stock market sentiment.
According to the latest CryptoQuant data, the correlation has turned negative, currently at -0.02 at the time of writing. This suggests that at the beginning of 2026, Bitcoin was not traded as a proxy for risky stocks.
However, the correlation systems have shown to be unstable in previous sessions, leaving the opportunity to renew the alignment with the stocks. In such a scenario, a sustained rally in stocks can also act as a tailwind for Bitcoin, allowing it to benefit from a broader risk sentiment.
