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XRP has been in a steep free fall since its peak on January 6th, dropping about 15% in just six days. Multiple support levels have already fallen, and momentum remains weak. However, under this sale, something unusual happens. Conviction buyers arrived at a rate not seen since September 7.
The key price zones of the XRP indicator remain firm, and the demand develops quietly under pressure. This creates a rare discrepancy between price action and behavior on the blockchain.
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The free fall in XRP is based on a major trend line
The sales process is also speeding up XRP has failed At the retracement of the 200-day EMA at the January 6 peak. Exponential Moving Average (EMA), gives more weight to recent prices and is often used to assess short-term and long-term trend strength. When the price remains below the important consumer rates, sellers are usually in control.
Since the peak, XRP has first lost the 100-day EMA, then the 50-day EMA. It is now approaching the 20-day EMA, which has become the last support for short-term trends.
This level is important because it often separates controlled pulling from deeper passive movements.
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A similar situation occurred in early December. When XRP lost Dividing the 20-day average on December 4, the price fell about 15% in the following days. This story explains why the current level is so important.
Retention keeps the structure alive, but a clean loss (close every day) can extend the free fall.
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Dip buying is strongest since September – but by some funds
Despite the technical damage, bear buying by long-term investors, or rather confident buyers, has escalated.
This is reflected in HODLer’s net position change, a metric that tracks whether long-term portfolios are increasing or decreasing their currency balances. When the value is positive, the carriers are in the backlog. When it is negative, they distribute.
The strongest accumulation comes from the carriers of convictions, not from the vast groups of whales. The change in HODLer net positions shows that wallets added about 62 million XRP on January 9th, and then almost four times that amount on each of the following two days.
On January 10th and 11th, holders held approximately 239 million XRP and 243 million XRP, even as the price continued to decline. This makes this the strongest two-day buying streak since September 7th.
As for the whales, they remain cautious. Only small whales holding between one million and ten million XRP showed activity. Their combined balances increased from 3.52 billion to 3.53 billion XRP, an increase of almost 10 million XRP. At the current price, this equates to about a $20.5 million purchase.
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This is not a large accumulation. It is a targeted and defensive purchase. The smaller whales are entering near the key levels, but the bigger players are still waiting. This flaw explains why XRP finds support But he is struggling to make a strong recovery.
Supply pools and XRP price levels explain the conviction
This belief is closely aligned with the basic cost structure of XRP.
Supply rallies form where large amounts of currencies have been purchased at similar prices before. These areas often act as defensive levels because traders near breakeven tend to buy the dip to protect their positions instead of selling at a loss.
There are two main groups of supplies that are just below the current price. The first is between $2.00 and $2.01, where about 1.9 billion XRP have been accumulated.
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The second is worth between $1.96 and $1.97, with another $1.8 billion in XRP purchased. These levels explain why selling pressure has slowed despite weak momentum.
As long as these groups are fixed, it can For the XRP price Form long low lows and try to stabilize. A retracement of the 20-day EMA near $2.04 would be the first indication that this defense is working.
On the positive side, XRP should claim $2.21 and then $2.41, the peak of January 6. The liquidation of $2.41 will put $2.69 back into play and change the structure to bullish again.
Downside risks remain. A clean break below $2.01 exposes $1.97 (next supply), followed by $1.77. Notice how the on-chain supply pool also has active support lines on the XRP price chart.
The condemnation of XRP is not out of the blue or a big catch. It comes from the temple. The 20-day trend line has not been completely broken, and heavy supply rallies are located directly below the price. As long as these two elements persist, deep buyers are willing to intervene.
