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The history of Bitcoin hacking is on track, but the necessary rebound is not clean. Bitcoin price has found major trend support, history favors a continuation, and short-term selling is dry.
However, every push up meets the offer. The reason is not clear from the price alone. A group of carriers is still selling towards strength, and this can delay the next phase of the upside.
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The rupture structure remains intact
Bitcoin is trading in a cup and handle structure on the daily chart. Price briefly pushed to break through the handle near $92,400 before pulling back, but the structure remains valid until key support holds.
The most important support signal is the 20-day EMA. Exponential Moving Average (EMA), gives more weight to recent prices and helps determine the direction of the short-term trend. Bitcoin retook its 20-day EMA on January 10 and was followed by two daily green candles. This sequence is important.
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In December, Bitcoin is back The 20-day EMA averaged twice, on December 3 and December 9. Both times, the rollback failed because the next candle turned red. On January 1, the recovery was followed by another green candle. This move resulted in an increase of almost 7%.
A similar setup is taking shape again. As long as Bitcoin remains above the 20-day moving average, the breakout theory remains on track. But the long highs near $92,400 show that the supply is still active. This raises a question: who sells?
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Short- and long-term holders are calm, but very long-term holders are not
The data on the chain help to answer this question.
Short-term selling pressure has fallen. Data for the spent coin age category, which highlights coin activity per payment, for the 7-day to 30-day category shows a sharp drop in activity from about 24,800 BTC to just 1,328 BTC, a 95% decrease since January 8.
The record net position change for holders also turned positive on December 26. These holders, often seen as long-term investors, (holding Bitcoin for 155 days or more) have been net buyers ever since and have continued to buy even when… Bitcoin has reached its peak The 5th of January.
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Sales come from a different group.
The change in long-term net holder positions, which tracks very long position holders who may have coins held for more than a year, remains negative. On January 1, this group distributed about 286,700 Bitcoin (BTC). As of January 11, this sale had slowed to about 109,200 BTC, a decrease of more than 60%. Selling pressure is beginning to ease, but has not yet turned into buying.
This explains the near resistive frequency. The short sellers are gone, the longer investors are buying, but the ultra long holders are still shedding enough supply to determine the price for now.
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Bitcoin price levels that hold the key
He needs Bitcoin now For a clean daily close above $92,400 to open the way towards $94,870. Ending that zone will complete the breakout story and trigger the 12% upside target measurement. This transition is expected to reach an area of ​​$106,630.
To do this, Bitcoin must be above the 20-day NMA and prevent the selling of very long holders from pushing the price up again.
On the upside, $89,230 is a big boost. A daily closing below will weaken the structure of the encounter. A deeper drop towards $84,330 will completely invalidate the bullish setup.
So far, the history of Bitcoin hacking remains on track. The only piece missing is the conviction of the older carriers. Once the group stops selling, the delayed match can move quickly.
