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The price of XRP is still above $2.08, but the breakout has not been confirmed. The reason is not only weak prices. It’s a matter of timing. Last week, XRP ETF inflows fell to their weakest level since the start of trading, with an apparent slowdown in the bullish momentum.
Meanwhile, long-term holders are starting to buy more intensively. This creates a rare conflict between institutional demand and long-term conviction, putting XRP at a crucial juncture.
The one-week delay in the influx of XRP funds weakened the confirmation of the model
XRP is still trading Within a vertical structure and bullish shoulder on the daily chart. The model is still valid, but the encounter is stopped. The price remains firmly above the right shoulder near $2.08, but is still far from confirming the neckline.
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This lag is directly in line with the ETF data.
During the week ending January 9, XRP spot funds alone recorded $38.07 million in net inflows. This is the lowest weekly flow since launch, about 84% from the late November peak of nearly $244 million. Timing is important.
The steepest part of XRP’s decline occurred between January 6 and January 9, when demand for ETFs cooled further.
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This does not invalidate the bullish pattern. This explains why the detonation has not yet occurred. Head and shoulders reversal patterns require sustained demand near the neck. As index fund flows decrease during the right shoulder phase, price movement stops instead of accelerating.
Another detail adds friction. The neckline, which is close to $2.50, is itself sloping, which means that … XRP price It needs price strength and sustained demand to confirm the move. Currently, the ETF side of this equation is missing.
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Carrier backlog is growing as key supply areas become more visible
While demand for ETFs is weakening, something else has changed dramatically.
Between January 9 and January 10, the net change in the positions of XRP holders increased from approximately 62.4 million XRP to 239.5 million XRP. This increases by about 300% in 24 hours. This metric tracks the net accumulation by holders. A growth of this size indicates strong accumulation, not short-term trading.
This is important because it compensates for the slowness of ETFs. Even as demand for institutional index funds stagnated, long-term holders intervened aggressively.
Cost base heat map showing where buying pressure meets resistance.
The first major supply pool is between $2.14 and $2.15, where about 1.88 billion XRP have been accumulated. XRP is currently trading Directly below this area. A daily close above it represents the first real spike in supply.
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Now, for this massive rally to break, the price of XRP will need a lot more than just a long-term doom. It will also need the support of ETFs when the window reopens tomorrow.
Above that, the price of the next and most important cluster is between $2.48 and $2.50, where about 1.62 billion XRP is held. This area corresponds closely to the reverse neck line of the head and shoulder. Eliminating the tests would not only be a technical advance. This means that the price moves through two dense layers of bearer stock.
That’s why the end of the ETF didn’t cause a crash. The long-term accumulation absorbs the pressure, keeping XRP stable while the market waits for the next demand catalyst.
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XRP price levels that determine if the crash will finally happen
XRP price Now torn between impulse buying and late confirmation. The next levels are clear.
The first level to watch is $2.15 ($2.146 to be exact). A daily close above this zone would put XRP above its nearest rally cross and confirm that the recent accumulation of holders is taking a win.
Above this, $2.28 comes into focus, corresponding to the retracement of Fibonacci 0.618. When cleared, it opens the way towards $2.42, followed by the neck area near $2.50.
A break and close above $2.50 would confirm a head and shoulders reversal breakout and trigger the expected 34% upside from current levels.
On the downside, $2.06 remains a crucial support. Losing this range will weaken the right shoulder and delay the bullish structure further, although it will not completely overcome it.
At the moment, the price of XRP does not refuse to break down. He is waiting. The demand for ETFs fell at the worst possible time for the confirmation, but legacy investors intervened in force. Whether XRP will break higher now depends on one thing: a new demand can push the price above $2.15 and then $2.50 before the conviction fades.
