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After a strong start to 2026, Ethereum (ETH) is facing downward pressure, with its price falling almost 3% in the last 24 hours.
Amidst this, an analyst pointed to a major bearish signal that Ethereum must overcome before a confirmed break above the $3,300 level becomes possible.
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Ethereum is facing a critical test with weak market conditions
Data from BeInCrypto Markets showed that ETH closed 2025 in 10.9%. However, Green candles mostly dominated In a chart at the start of the new year, altcoins rose 11.3% between January 1st and January 6th.
However, since Wednesday, ETH has reversed its new course. In the past day, the second largest crypto fell by about 3%.
At the time of writing, it is trading at $3,113. The move comes as part of a wider market decline, which has seen the digital currency’s total market capitalization decline by more than 2.2%.
In a recent assessment, CryptoOnchain highlighted a notable bearish divergence between Ethereum’s price action and the underlying demand in the chain. The analyst noted a sharp deterioration in the Coinbase Premium gap.
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Its 14-day simple moving average fell to -2,285, the lowest level recorded since the beginning of February 2025. According to CryptoOnchain, this indicates. Double request From US institutional investors.
The Coinbase Premium Gap tracks the price difference between Coinbase, which is often used as a measure of US institutional sentiment, and Binance, which reflects broader global trading activity.
“This persistent negative gap clearly indicates that the selling pressure – or more precisely, the lack of buying interest – is much stronger on Coinbase than on Binance.”
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The analyst added that the historically sustained rise of Ethereum coincides with a positive rally in Coinbase. The current negative reading suggests that institutional buyers remain largely on the sidelines at current price levels.
“This weakness on the chain is emerging as Ethereum continues to struggle below the intense resistance area at $3,300… until the price gap between Coinbase and Binance returns to positive territory and real demand emerges in the US spot market, the probability of a confirmed breakthrough above the $3,300 resistance remains low.”
Continuous flows of Ethereum fast funds also highlight slow demand. ETFs posted their biggest monthly inflows in November, totaling $1.42 billion. This was followed by the additional flow of $616.8 million in December.
On January 7, ETFs recorded their first outflow of 2026, exiting $98.45 million from products according to… For the data SoSoValue. This was reversed Outflows from Bitcoin and XRP funds On the same day, which strengthened the weakness of the sector.
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Positive signs are emerging despite weak institutional demand
While the demand seems to be low, the interest of investors has not completely disappeared. BeInCrypto said that On January 6, Morgan Stanley filed an SEC Form S-1 for an Ethereum Spot ETF, following previous Bitcoin-related ETF filings. Vasulana.
In addition, from technical aspect, Many market watchers expect a further increase in ETH. notice Hidden bullish divergence on ETH chart, with valid support. This situation could lead to more upward price movement if it continues. Another trader said: Tighten up Bollinger Bands, which is an indicator of the potential for a major move.
The discrepancy between bearish institutional metrics and bullish technical signals creates uncertainty. While Coinbase Premium Gap and ETF outflows indicate institutional caution, technical rankings suggest Ethereum could rally. Which factor in the end of the decisive test will become clearer in the coming days.
