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A trader on the Polymarket platform has sparked widespread controversy after making more than $400,000 by correctly betting on the timing of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s arrest.
Posts linking the trader to World Liberty Financial (WLFI) began circulating before blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps responded and criticized the conclusions.
Data analyst “Andrew 10 GWEI” said that based on Coinbase’s funding model and a group of wallets called ENS and SNS (similar to “Steven Charles”), the trader may be connected to one of the founders of WLFI, a person named “Steven Charles Witkoff.”
According to his analysis, two semi-dormant wallets funded “Polymarket” accounts before executing bets, receiving funds from Coinbase and then transferring them directly to the platform.
He said that one of the wallets received approximately 252 SOL from Coinbase, while a similar amount was deposited into Coinbase from another address about a day ago, which is believed to be a 99% match, indicating that the wallet’s timing, naming, and transaction process may strengthen the assumption that insider information exists.
Bubblemaps, on the other hand, rejected the link, arguing that the logic used was exaggerated and not supported by data in the form of the circulation.
She explained that it is misleading to think that a single pattern is the same because thousands of portfolios may exhibit similar behavior when using broad filters that include close amounts and general time windows.
The company also downplayed the one-day delay between deposits and withdrawals from its central trading platform, emphasizing that such delays are common and do not necessarily imply coordination or shared ownership.
She added that the analysis only focused on SOL traffic, although deposits to the trading platform may be made in other assets such as USDC or ETH.
Bubblemaps said that when calculating these assets or their equivalent dollar values, many additional matches emerged during the same time frame, weakening the strength of the conclusions.
The company concluded by emphasizing that timing analysis is a powerful tool, but if used inaccurately, it can lead to erroneous conclusions, warning against ignoring the facts in excitement.
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