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Bitcoin (BTC) is up 6.54% until 2026, showing the first signs of strength amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and a cautious return to optimism in the market.
While the recovery continues, an analyst has identified a critical level that can determine whether Bitcoin will move from a bearish structure to a renewed trend in 2026.
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Bitcoin extends first gains of 2026
While market anxiety continues towards the end of 2025, the new year has begun Strong foundation for Bitcoin And the largest digital currency market. On Monday, the largest cryptocurrency jumped to more than $95,000, a price not seen since the beginning of December.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $93,230, representing an increase of 0.69% in the last 24 hours. The broader digital currency market has also strengthened, with many sectors achieving notable gains as risk appetite gradually returns.
Analysts attribute the renewed increase to several converging factors, including New customization for the new year After the fiscal sale at the end of the year, it will increase The request for safe haven Amid the US strike on Venezuela, market sentiment is improving.
This change of mood is also supported Strong flows into ETFs . BeInCrypto reported that on January 5, the funds of the index were obtained About $695 millionwhich represents the largest one-day flow in three months.
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What Bitcoin needs to reverse the uptrend
In the middle of this recovery attempt, Crypto analyst Dan pointed to a key level in the chain that can determine the broader direction of Bitcoin. Dan noted that Bitcoin is currently trading below a crucial indicator: the cost basis last moved from 6 to 12 months ago, which is close to $100,000.
Historically, when the price remains below this level, market conditions tend to be bearish, with downside risks remaining high.
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The restoration of this cost base represents a significant change in the structure of the market, explained the analyst. In previous sessions, such a move has coincided with a move towards bullish conditions, as selling pressure from underwater campers eases and price gains have room to go higher.
“After weeks of sideways movement, Bitcoin is showing the first signs of a rebound, making this level the key limit to watch. Failure to overcome it will indicate that the broader downward trend remains in place. Ultimately, whether the market becomes bullish depends on this level – and we don’t have to wait long to find out,” Dan wrote.
The main question now is when Bitcoin will test this level. Analyst Ted Bellows noted that Bitcoin is currently trying to regain the annual open level 2025. According to the analyst, some daily closes above this zone could pave the way for a move towards $100,000 in the coming weeks.
books Bellows: “The fakeout means that Bitcoin will fall towards the support area between $90,000 and $91,000.”
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Beyond the indicators based on the charts, broader macroeconomic factors are also forming the expectations for the next movement of Bitcoin. Some analysts point to the possibility of increased oil supplies if the United States gains access to Venezuela’s reserves, a development that could lower energy prices and change global liquidity conditions.
It can encourage lower energy costs Capital to turn into alternative assets Like Bitcoin. In this scenario, cryptocurrency markets can benefit as funds are redistributed in response to changing macro dynamics.
It may be the alleged Bitcoin reserve in Venezuela That exceeds 600,000 currencies A factor in the long-term market. If those positions are expropriated, the resulting decrease in available supply could create conditions that support higher Bitcoin valuations over time.
