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Bitcoin enters 2026 with a clear macro risk: President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda. By 2025, cryptocurrency traders will see rate securities move prices more quickly than ETFs.
Now there are many induction elevators on track for 2026. Some already have dates. Others depend on diplomacy and legal battle. Either way, they can turn sentiment from risk-averse to risk-averse in a matter of hours.
How Trump’s tariffs will transform cryptocurrencies in 2025
It led to an escalation of tariffs in 2025 It repeatedly led to widespread selling in cryptocurrencies.
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When Trump announced new tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China in early February, Bitcoin fell to a three-week low near $91,400. Ethereum has fallen from approx 25% in three daysa large percentage of the major symbols have fallen by more from 20% In a day as traders rush to reduce risk.
Then came the tariff shock in April and the escalation from the United States and China. Bitcoin fell briefly Under $82,000 During the worst periods of the wave of risk reduction, together with the sale of stocks related to digital currencies.
However, once the White House signaled the possibility of stops, cryptocurrencies recovered. In May, after the United States and China agreed to a temporary tariff truce, Bitcoin surged Again over $100,000While ETH jumped sharply.
Digital asset funds also saw new inflows during the relief phase.
The most severe stress test came in October. After that Trump imposes 100% new tariffs. On China imports linked to rare earth tensions, Bitcoin fell more than 16% in a quick move.
Liquidations have increased, with reports of… Loss of $19 billion In a forced closing through stock exchanges in one day. As of December 2025, the market has not yet recovered from this liquidation shock.
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1. 100% deferred rate ramp in China
This fee will add up New 100% tariffs on all imports from ChinaUnless the discussions result in an agreement. Trump announced in October 2025 and then launched it, focusing on the end of 2026.
If Trump reactivates it, the markets will price it Weaker growth and more persistent inflation. This combination could affect Bitcoin by tightening financial conditions, pushing traders out of leverage, and simultaneously dragging down risk assets.
2. Higher global base rate
The president of the United States said earlier Possible increase in general import customs duties Beyond the minimum 10% tax in 2025. Trump also campaigned on a much higher global rate, keeping this risk alive.
The basic price increase will not be a one-day headline. This will act as a constant pressure on risk appetite.
For BitcoinThis usually means volatile highs, more accurate lows that are bought, and more sensitivity to price forecasts.
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3. Digital Services Tax Retaliation Charges in Europe
This is amazing The new tariffs will target countries that impose digital services taxes or similar rules on US tech companies. Trump warned in 2025 that countries that retain these taxes could face “significant” tariffs.
If the United States accesses the exports of the EU or the United Kingdom, the global stocks could recover the stocks at their prices. Cryptocurrencies tend to follow the risk aversion bar first.
In 2025, this dynamic helped to change the tariff addresses Liquidation-driven rapid declines.
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4. Pharmaceutical customs duties that can increase by around 200%
This rate target Imported branded or patented drugswith penalties imposed on companies that do not switch manufacturing to the United States. Trump has indicated very high rates in 2025 and positions the policy as an industrial supply tool.
If prices rise by around 200% in 2026, investors can treat this as an inflationary driver. Bitcoin may attract the discussion of “hedging” during inflation fears, but the trade often moves in the opposite direction first: risk assets are sold as liquidity tightens.
5. Expansion of secondary customs duties associated with approved trade
Secondary customs duties Countries will be penalized for buying oil or goods from opponents of the United Stateseven if those countries are not the direct target. Trump introduced this concept in 2025 and implemented it in a remarkable way.
If Trump expands this tool in 2026, it could attract more countries to trade tariffs and increase global uncertainty.
For Bitcoin, the biggest channel is volatility. More uncertainty generally means wider volatility, more forced selling, and a slower recovery unless liquidity improves.
