Open Market Committee signals no rush to cut rates until March 2026, a test for digital currencies

Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market are entering the new year under renewed pressure after the Federal Open Market Committee released minutes from its December meeting.

Federal Open Market Committee minutes show there is little urgency to cut interest rates again in early 2026.

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Higher interest rates for a longer period affect the mood of cryptocurrencies

The preparations indicatepublished on December 30, indicated that policy makers prefer to stop as well Cut 25 basis points in DecemberThis has pushed expectations for the next reduction towards March at the latest.

Markets had already paused for the January move, but the language reinforced that view. Even the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee overshadowed hopes for a March 2026 cut.

So, the first clear rate cut could be in April.

Bitcoin has traded in a narrow range between about $85,000 and $90,000 in recent weeks.

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Price action remains fragile Having failed to find higher resistance levels, while sentiment indicators indicate caution rather than conviction.

in general, Daily trading volumes for cryptocurrencies remain weak . Risk appetite has not recovered significantly after the decline in December.

According to the transcript, several officials argued that it was “It is advisable to keep the target range unchanged for some timeTo evaluate late effects of recent stretching.

Others described the December reduction as “Finely balanced“, highlights the lack of appetite for follow-up action without clearer progress on inflation.

Inflation remains the central constraint . Policymakers have recognized that price pressures”It is not close to the goal of 2 percent over the past year“, even when labor market conditions improve.

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Summary of the FOMC minutes:

Most participants supported a 25bp cut to a fed funds range of 3.50% to 3.75% (9-3 vote), saying the balance of risks has shifted as “downside risks to employment increase” even as inflation “remains somewhat elevated.”

Most noted that inflation has been over… pic.twitter.com/zr5ZJsPvVu

— Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) December 30, 2025

The Federal Open Market Committee noted that tariffs It was the main driver behind stubborn goods inflation, while services inflation showed a gradual improvement.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve noted High risks for employment. Officials noted a slowdown in hiring, quiet business plans and growing anxiety among low-income families.

However, most participants preferred to wait for additional data before changing the policy again.

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For cryptocurrency markets, the message is clear. With high real yields and tight liquidity conditions, short-term bullish catalysts remain rare.

Bitcoin’s recent consolidation reflects this tension, as investors balance the expectation of eventual easing with the reality of higher interest rates for a longer period.

In the future, March now appears as the first realistic window for another cut, assuming that inflation calms down and business conditions weaken further.

Until then, cryptocurrency markets may have difficulty recovering momentum. Prices are likely to be vulnerable to further decline if macroeconomic data disappoints in early 2026.