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Since the beginning of 2025, Bitcoin has not closed a monthly candle below $80,000. Therefore, this point has so far provided decisive and strong support.
However, signals from the Coinbase Premium indicator threaten this support. Analysts see reasons for optimism even if this level is broken.
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The Coinbase Bitcoin premium index fell to its lowest level since February
The Coinbase Premium Index measures the Bitcoin price difference between Coinbase (US) and Binance (International). This indicator often reflects the purchase demand from US institutional investors.
When the indicator turns negative, it indicates stronger selling pressure from the United States. This pressure greatly contributed to the decrease in the price of BTC.
Cryptoquant data indicates that on December 30, the index was at -0.14. This represents the lowest level since February.
The index remained negative for 16 consecutive days in December. During this period, Bitcoin failed to close a weekly candle above $90,000.
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Based on this, the analyst believes that Bitcoin may not have formed its bottom yet. The selling pressure from US investors shows no clear sign of stopping.
Investor Johnny said the biggest indicator that a local fund is catching up will be when the Coinbase Premium index returns. Link to statement.
A similar sharp drop in February led to Bitcoin breaking the $80,000 support level. The price rebounded quickly after that.
Therefore, the current strong negative situation may indicate a similar scenario.
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Additionally, December saw negative ETF exposure for the second month in a row. However, negative ETF flows in December decreased significantly compared to the previous month.
The February and early March 2025 patterns show a similar phenomenon. This may reflect continued sales by American investors, but at a weaker rate than before.
This situation creates the conditions for a Bitcoin recovery. A recovery may also occur if the price temporarily breaks the $80,000 level.
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Long-term holders (LTH) have reduced selling pressure for now. His supply began to grow again.
Cryptoquant data shows that the supply of asset holders is long It goes from distribution to accumulation At the end of December. About 10,700 BTC were transferred to long-term hold status. This is the first positive sign from LTHs since they stopped selling in July.
commented analyst Darkfoust Saying This remains a very small change at the moment, but it is not unimportant… Historically, such changes are often preceded by phases of consolidation or even bullish recovery, depending on the broader trends.
The thread concluded that Coinbase’s premium index remains at historic lows, and ETF withdrawals continue. However, signs for long-term asset holders offer some hope. BTC may break the $80,000 level if the selling pressure continues, however, A rebound can happen at any time.
