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Bitcoin price enters 2026 with divided predictions. Some are calling for an increase of about $200,000, like Tom Lee. Others, including veteran trader Peter Brandt, caution against retesting ahead of deeper weakness.
However, voices like Yonghoon Kim argue that the recent declines appear to be a temporary manipulation before power returns. With conflicting predictions, the truth lies between fear and euphoria. Let’s dive deeper to see which signs on the chart and on the series matter most as the new year begins.
December patterns and background signal are not activated
Bitcoin ends December Back in the red zone (almost there). That was important before. Since 2022, every time Bitcoin has closed December in the red, January has turned green. This pattern helped set the foundation for every bull move in 2025 – including the April 2025 rally that eventually pushed the price of Bitcoin towards a peak of $126,000 in October.
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Currently, a similar setup is emerging. The reason for December’s red color lies with short-term Bitcoin holders.
The short-term NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit / Loss), which tracks the profit and loss sentiment of new buyers, remains in the rejection zone. The last time this happened was in April 2025, which was a bottom and helped start the run towards that $126,000 high in October 2025.
This time, the same sign of surrender appeared. On November 21, the short-term NUPL reached -0.27, surpassing the April low that was lower. Today, it is around -0.14, still in the surrender zone. The background signal is technically there. But the reaction is not like that.
Speaking with BeInCrypto, Hunter Rogers, co-founder of the global Bitcoin performance protocol TeraHash, emphasized how important this metric is:
“Talking about a signal on the chain to watch out for, for me, is the behavior of short-term holders versus the stability of long-term holders. As long-term holders remain stable, this cycle continues,” he said.
So if the capitulation in April helped to build a mandate fund Subsequently, Bitcoin reached new highsThe question today is simple:
Why didn’t the same signal also cause a similar positive reaction? The answer lies in the behavior of long-term carriers.
Which brings us to the next section: The groups that normally step in to welcome this surrender – the long-haul carriers and the whales – were not fully present this time. It is not yet in the full stage, which weakens the preparation for 2026.
Long-term title holders are in decline
Long-term carriers (LTH) usually step in when short-term carriers give up. They absorb the offer, lock in the price, and start the next phase. This is what happened in April 2025. The net accumulation of LTH peaked at 22,237 BTC in a single day and remained in the green the entire time. This created a barrier for price recovery.
This time, the pillow is thinner.
Since October 1, long-term holders have been selling. They finally stopped, but the purchase was modest. The most recent LTH accumulation peak (December 2025) is around 4,862 BTC, and most days are closer to 3,500 BTC. This equates to just 20% of April’s strength.
The signal is improving now, but it is not strong enough to turn the market on its own in 2026.
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Rogers explained how important this group is to survival on bicycles:
“As long as the holders remain long-term, the cycle continues. The continued stability of the long-term holders supports the results in which Bitcoin remains in a reset phase and can be higher over time.”
So the stability is there. Aggression does not do that. Without aggression, the clashes will stop.
The whales are silent, and this changes everything
Then there are the whales.
The number of whale wallets containing between 10,000 and 100,000 Bitcoin remains at an annual low. These portfolios were at the bottom in April and continued to rise throughout July. This uptrend supports the trip towards $126,000. Today, the opposite is true. The lack of whale absorption leaves a gap. This gap is why the surrender in November did not affect the price in the same way as April.
Rogers also highlighted this dynamic:
“Retail always reacts late, while whales tend to absorb all the supplies during the weakness. This pattern is repeated again and again,” he emphasizes.
Currently, the disconnection is clear. Short-term capitulation has appeared, but long-term holders and whales are not taking up the offer as before. Great advantages for Bitcoin. Whales are no longer shock absorbers, leaving the market vulnerable to breakout pressure rather than breakout momentum.
Rogers warned that this has direct implications for upside targets:
“So, Bitcoin can be more than $150,000 in 2026? Maybe. But it requires patience, liquidity, wider institutional adoption and time,” he said.
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He responded to even the most severe predictions:
He added: “Different scenarios For Bitcoin to reach $250,000 “Or more this year is not realistic for me at this stage.”
This, in a way, contradicts Aggressive Bitcoin price predictions made by the likes of Tom Lee and Yonghun Kimat least for now.
But the real question is, despite the short-term capitulation sign, why aren’t the long-term holders and the whales coming out stronger? The answer is on the chart and in the price structure.
What the Bitcoin price chart says about 2026
In the three-day chart, Bitcoin is found Inside what looks like a fallen flag.
The measured movement of this structure places a risk of collapse of about 36%. This risk increases because two intersections of the marginal average are close. Consuming averages are moving averages that react more quickly to price. The 50-period moving average is close to the 100-period moving average, while the 20-period moving average is close to the 200-period moving average.
If the two cross together, it indicates weakness as the flag tests support near $86,420. This combination could explain why whales and other deep pockets remain cautious, highlighting behavioral problems.
Hunter Rogers told BeInCrypto the same thing:
“Bitcoin’s movements in 2026 will be determined more by behavior around cost and risk,” he said.
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Currently, this behavior is still stuck. The whales are not engaging, and the price is struggling to get out of this range.
For the demonstration to be significant, Bitcoin needs to recover $ 105 200. This will invalidate the prediction of collapse. If that happens, the previous peak near $126,000 may be reached again or even improved.
As Rogers said:
“The market has already shown a peak near $126,000, but this alone does not end a whole cycle. What ends up doing is forced to sell below the collective cost,” he believes.
This “mass cost” is close to the realized price in the middle of $50,000.
Rogers called this the clear line that drives this book:
“As long as the price remains above the wide cost zone realized around the middle of $50,000, the market structure is stable,” he noted.
A sustained decline below that area would change the outlook and could be in line with the lower bear flag target near $38,630. This move will threaten the structure and may force long-term holders into losses. Above $105,260, the structure improves.
Under half of $50,000, the structure collapses. That is why the $58,000 level on the chart is key.
What’s next for Bitcoin in 2026?
Currently, putting Bitcoin is very simple and straightforward:
- The background signal appeared. (STH rendering)
- The question that usually follows did not happen. (whales and fish)
- A bearish chart setup hangs above. (Bear flag collapse looms)
A break above $105,000 or a break below $83,300 may answer the question that the market continues to avoid: will 2026 see a new peak in the price of Bitcoin or a new collapse?
