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The price of Cardano is about 13% from the low on December 25. It is now moved to an encounter zone in a falling wedge structure. The ADA is still down nearly 10% this month, but this week isn’t just a relief bounce.
Now it indicates that the trend can be prepared for a reversal if the price confirms the discovery.
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The falling peg now finds the reversal trigger
The falling wedge pattern has driven the price lower since early November. ADA tested the upper trend line of that wedge near $0.69. A daily close above this line opens a potential 79% upside target towards the same $0.69 level. This goal comes from measuring the vertical distance between the low swing touching the trend line in the wedge and the high swing in it, then projecting from the meeting point.
This can be It is the ADA price prediction If a violation occurs.
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The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures momentum and identifies excessive or oversold strength, supports this idea.
Between December 1 and 25, ADA has reached the lowest level low During the same period, the Repetitive Shock Index achieved a higher level of decline. This is an upward deviation. It appears that sellers are losing ground even as prices fall to new lows.
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This divergence led to the current 12.8% retracement. If the ADA breaks above $0.38, the RSI divergence may act as a trend reversal signal, not just a rebound signal.
Whales accumulate and currency activity declines
Whales carry between 100 million and 1 billion ADA Their balances increased when the signs of penetration appeared. On December 26, they had $3.72 billion. This number grew to US$3.83 billion, an addition of about US$41 million.
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The rally started the day after the divergence of the Signal Strength Index appeared and continued as the price moved towards the wedge resistance. This timing is important because whales often accumulate before a trend change, not after.
Coin activity, measured by the age category of coins consumed, which tracks how much supply moves up the chain from younger to older wallets, has decreased dramatically. On December 27, it recorded approximately $149.43 million. It has since fallen to 116.16 million ADA, a 22% decline.
Decreased coin activity means fewer older coins returning to the market. This reduces sales pressure. When whale buying increases while currency activity decreases, it creates a supportive situation for the bulls. These two signals are in line with the wedge configuration and RSI.
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Cardano price levels determine if $0.69 is possible
Trading ADA Close to $0.38. A daily close above $0.38 confirms the wedge breakout. If this happens, the structure allows for a move towards $0.42. The recovery of $0.47 is particularly important because the ADA did not recover this level on November 17 and again on December 9-10.
A pullback of $0.47 would indicate a change in trend structure. Above $0.51 and $0.55, momentum expands, and the path to the $0.69 forecast becomes realistic.
If the ADA loses $0.34, the falling wedge remains active, but the chance of a breakthrough weakens.
Currently, the ADA is undergoing its most significant test in over a month. The wedge and RSI hint at a reversal. The whales buy. Currency activity decreases. But without a confirmed break above $0.38 and strength towards $0.47, these suggestions do not become a trend.
