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Ethereum (eth) tried to break out of a bearish formation. The price of Ethereum traded near $3,016, up about 2.3% in 24 hours, and is now less than 2% from a key level that can change the public mood.
It enters the market with weakness at the end of the year, so this push comes at a sensitive time. The question is simply: is eth close to beating the bears, or is it just another false trap?
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The bearish head and shoulders pattern faces an obstacle
ETH has seen a head and shoulders pattern forming on the daily chart, which is a bearish pattern that usually breaks if the price loses its bottom. The cutoff here is close to $2,809. A confirmed crash could target a 20% drop based on model predictions.
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This decline is not necessarily easy.
The purchase cost heat map showed a large supply pool between $2,804-2,823, holding around 3.6 million eth. This is where a large number of owners made their last purchases. When the price returns to this area, they often defend their positions. This cluster explains survival Risk of Ethereum Collapse It exists, but seems less likely.
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The bottom line is that the bearish formation exists, but the bears do not have a clear path.
The whale buying is offset by a 98% drop in long sales
Two moves on the chain now support eth’s attempt to resist the downside.
Whales (not including exchanges) have increased their stake from 100.65 million eth on December 28th to 101.05 million eth today.
This means adding about 400,000 eth. At the current price, the purchase was worth about $1.2 billion in less than 24 hours.
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This increase coincides with Ethereum (eth) regains its footing From the model’s right shoulder. When large holders buy into the risk of a crash, it often indicates confidence. At the same time, eth coins mined from 365 days to 2 years old collapsed from 45,846 eth on December 27 to 1,076 eth today.
This represents a 98% decrease in the movement of old coins. The Obsolete Currency Index measures currencies that return to circulation after being held unexpended.
The lack of movement means that long-term holders of eth are no longer selling during the strength. This relieves the pressure and allows the whales to lead the recovery attempt. With whale buying and long-term eth holders preventing selling, supply dynamics now support the upside.
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The price of Ethereum is one shot away from beating the bears
ETH is trading near $3,016. The first important line represents $3,069, which is less than 2% of the current level. A daily close above $3,069 breaks short-term bear control.
Above this level, the zone of invalidation of the bearish pattern is located at $3,449. This level is the top of the head in the head and shoulders model. The daily close above $3,449 eliminates the bearish structure and gives control to buyers.
Explain that the $2,809 level remains the neckline, and losing it reopens a 20% downside potential. This could push the price below $2,623 first, invalidating the bear breakout scenario. Right now, eth is between the two possibilities, but the momentum and supply behavior favors the bulls if it can break above $3,069.
