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The price of Solana has decreased by about 12% in the last 30 days. As 2026 approaches, the chart shows a mix of bullish and bearish signals.
Some indicators point to a rebound in January, but other indicators suggest that pressure may continue if momentum fails.
The story is bullish, but the flows of index funds and the opinions of experts are divided
It was January Strong month for Solana. The average return is around 59%, with average gains around 22%. The pattern becomes clear when December ends in red.
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In 2022, the SOL index fell by 29.6% in December, and in January 2023, the SOL index rose by 140%. In December 2024, the SOL index fell by 20.5%, and in January 2025, it rose by 22.3%. This month it is down 6.94% so far, which statistically leans towards a recovery.
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ETF data supports this idea. Since launch, Solana spot funds have not recorded a single week of net flows. Last week it added $13.14 million (the week is still incomplete), bringing total flows to $755.77 million.
This stable demand indicates selective confidence in the economic end at a time when other major companies are facing withdrawal.
B2BinPay’s analytical team describes what this flow model means for Solana and the wider market, in their conversation with BeInCrypto.: :
“Investors do not move the wholesale sale of Bitcoin and Ethereum to the altcoin market. They prioritize a small group of liquid, well-known tokens where the decrease seems to be manageable, and the positions can be closed quickly if necessary.”
This is why only a few altcoins like Solana or XRP see a flow, while most of the market is quiet. The influx in Solana should not be read as the beginning of the alternate season. “These movements are particularly narrow and selective,” they said.
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This supports SOL fund flowsBut they also warn against framing the transition as a general preparation for an alternative season.
Chart signals point to a reversal, but cash dividends and derivatives are showing resistance
In the two-day chart, you get it price SOL The lowest occurred between November 21 and December 17, while the RSI (Relative Strength Index, a measure of momentum that shows overbought/oversold strength) recorded a higher low. This is a bullish divergence and may indicate an early trend reversal if buyers follow through.
But a falling state lies right next to it.
At the same time, the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is a line that follows the trend and reacts faster to the price.
If this bearish transition is confirmed, the bearish pressure could continue until the end of December or beginning of January before any recovery can be sustained. Until this interference is avoided or reversed, the technical picture remains divided.
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The positioning of the derivatives shows more caution. On Hyperliquid, almost every trading tranche has net short positions over the past seven days.
Top 100 stocks, smart money account, And all the accounts of Solana Short on the net. However, some groups (smart money, public figures and criminal winners) are slowly opening long offers. This could be a positive January prediction of 2026, as previously highlighted.
This combination leaves the setting balanced. Momentum indicates that a reversal may be on the way. The positioning of consumer accounts and derivatives ​​​​​​​​​argues for patience. If Solana wants to build a rally in January, he needs to push this derivative sentiment away from selling while avoiding a cash mean crossover.
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Solana Key Price Levels: $129 is the pivot, $116 is the safe option
SOL trades Close to $124. The end of two days above $129 will confirm the strength and open a path towards $150. It may target $150 liquidation at $171 if the ETF inflows continue and the RSI momentum continues to build.
The cost-based heat map data explains why $129 is important. One of the strongest supply groups is between $123 and $124, and SOL is currently struggling to break above that.
A close above $129 will break that group and clear the immediate resistance above. Above that, the bid drops to $165 to $167, improving the chances of a continuation if volume hits.
A cost-based heat map traces where large groups of holders have purchased their tokens, highlighting areas where supply or demand may be clustered.
On the other hand, $116 remains the safe option. Losing this level breaks the historical trend of “red December, green January” and paves the way for a continuation of the downward trend. A confirmed crossover in the bearish EMA, accompanied by a break below $116, will reset the outlook for the month.
Currently, the transaction is known as a threshold. Above $129, the bullish momentum allows room for a move towards $150 and $171. Below $116, the buyers lose control, and cannot show the usual strength in January.
