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XRP has fallen by about 1.6% in the last 24 hours. The weekly chart showed that it remains one of the weakest large-cap currencies, down about 16% from last month’s levels. Much of the price action revolves around the bottom of a descending triangle pattern, a structure that often results in continuation moves.
A meeting has not been confirmed yet, but three signals from the market align in a way that cautious traders are heading to the last days of 2025.
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Individual investors and long-term holders move in the same way
XRP is still stuck Inside a descending triangle, moving horizontally near the lower trend line. The price rose between December 18 and December 27, but the Money Flow Index (MFI) moved in reverse during the same period.
The Money Flow Index monitors the flow of money into or out of an asset. Making a lower bottom in the index during a rising price indicates that individual investors are selling on each jump rather than accumulating.
This pressure keeps the XRP price at the bottom of the pattern instead of testing the upper line.
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The concern increases when we look at long-term holders.
According to the HODL Waves indicator, which shows the amount of supply held for each age group, XRP portfolios held for 2-3 years have fallen from 14.26% of supply on November 26th to around 5.66% on December 26th.
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These represent long-term conviction holders, and selling removes a layer of support in the market. The weakness of individual investors is normal. Long-term weakness at the same time is not the case.
This creates a situation where short- and long-term behavior goes in the same direction: Exit XRP.
Capital inflows show declining demand
If the conviction of retail and long-term investors weakens, go check the flow of capital, which is the third key signal.
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The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator provides no relief. The CMF indicator tracks buying and selling pressures based on trading volume and price movements. The Big Money Flow Index remains negative for XRP and falls into a bearish support trend line.
In simpler terms, even if the price remains stable, the large amount of capital flowing into the asset is decreasing, and the market is moving towards supply exceeding demand. With the CMF indicator still not improving, the market is losing another additional safety net.
This is why the price of XRP has been stable instead of bouncing.
XRP price levels determine if a crash will actually happen
currently, XRP remains confined Between $1.90 and $1.81. It lost the $1.90 level on December 22 and has not recovered since. Restoring the $1.90 level and then targeting $1.99 will be the first signs of strength.
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This also indicates that the upper limit of the triangle has been crossed and gives buyers an incentive to move.
However, the bearish scenario remains clearer than the bullish scenario at the moment.
If the level of $1.81 is broken, XRP may fall out of the descending triangle pattern, which constitutes a confirmation of the decline. This loss could open the way to $1.68 where the whole structure fails, and even to $1.52 if the pace of selling accelerates.
This has not been confirmed yet, but the market has not yet shown an opposite signal. As long as selling by retail investors, long-term distribution and weak capital flow continues in the same direction, the price of XRP should struggle to maintain the range.
