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Ethereum (ETH) has been trading sideways around the $3,000 level over the past two weeks. Although recent acquisitions have come from companies such as BitMine and Trend Research, demand seems to be insufficient.
The following data reveal the rest of the picture, as the selling pressure remains so strong. Therefore, ETH is unlikely to make a quick recovery in the short term.
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1. ETH exchange reserves will return again during Christmas week
CryptoQuant data shows that ETH reserves on all exchanges have been continuously decreasing for several months.
However, the trend reversed in December. This week, ETH exchange reserves increased from 16.2 million to 16.6 million. This increase is equivalent to about 400,000 ETH transferred to exchanges.
reveal Data on the chain is that an “old whale” just deposited 100,000 Ethereum in Binance.
The reports appear BeInCrypto reported that BitMine Immersion Technologies purchased 67,886 ethanoeth this week. Trend Research also acquired 46,379 ETH. However, these numbers are still smaller than the amount of quick profits transferred to the exchanges.
If ETH is transferred to exchanges for liquidation and exceeds purchase absorption, selling pressure may increase. If this trend continues in the final days of the year, ETH prices could face additional downward pressure.
2. The estimated leverage of Ethereum is still high
Another key metric is Ethereum’s estimated leverage ratio, which remains at a worrying level, according to CryptoQuant.
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This ratio is equal to open interest divided by foreign exchange reserves. It reflects the average leverage used by traders. Rising values ​​indicate that more investors are creating increased leverage in the derivatives markets.
October 10, the day he saw Biggest liquidation loss In the history of the market, the ratio has been 0.72. Currently, the ratio has returned to similar levels. Some readings even reach 0.76.
As leverage continues to grow, Ethereum remains vulnerable to small price movements. Such moves could lead to a sequential liquidation.
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3. Ethereum Coinbase premium turned deeper negative in December
I said BeInCrypto previously reported that Ethereum’s Coinbase Premium price turned negative in December.
During the week of Christmas, the index moved further into negative territory. It is currently at -0.08, the lowest level in the past month.
This indicator measures the percentage difference in price between ETH on Coinbase Pro (pair USD) and Binance (pair USDT). Negative values ​​indicate lower prices on Coinbase.
This trend indicates that US investors will continue to sell at discounted prices. ETH may have a hard time recovering in the short term until the Coinbase premium turns positive.
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4. ETH fund flows enter a second consecutive month of outflows
December has come to an end, and ETF inflows are likely to close with a second consecutive month of net flows.
Last month, net flows in all ETH funds reached – $1.42 billion. This month, flows have already exceeded $560 million.
Without new flows, ETH lacks upward momentum. If the flows continue, especially during the low-volume year-end holidays, prices may retest lower support levels.
“Since the beginning of November, the 30D-SMA of net inflows in Bitcoin and Ethereum funds has become negative and has remained so. This continuation indicates a phase of quiet commitment and partial decoupling from institutional distributors, reinforcing the broader contraction of liquidity in the cryptocurrency market.” As reported Glass node.
In summary, four signals – growing exchange reserves, leveraged leverage, strongly negative premiums, and flows supported by ETFs – suggest that ETH may remain in a consolidation phase or face further declines.
Maintaining appropriate stop-loss levels for derivative positions and using a wise capital allocation for spot purchases can help traders reduce risk in unexpected volatility.
