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Bitcoin has largely ignored what should have been macro support signals. The US CPI fell to 2.7% in December, raising expectations of interest rate cuts, but Bitcoin did not respond. Instead of attracting new capital, the price stagnates while money flows elsewhere.
This disconnect is why the Bitcoin bull market debate has arisen.
Fidelity’s global macro director, Goren Timmer, recently warned that Bitcoin may have already completed its last four-year cycle in October, both in terms of price and timing. Since then, market and chain data increasingly support this view.
The data signals that Bitcoin may already be in a bear market
Many independent indicators now point to the same conclusion: equity is falling, holders are selling, Bitcoin absorbs risk Without really asking.
The flow of stablecoins has collapsed since the peak of the cycle
Stablecoin inflows often act as dry powder in crypto demonstrations. That fuel is gone.
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The total exchange flow for ERC-20 stablecoins peaked at about 10.2 billion on August 14. As of December 24, flows had fallen to about 1.06 billion, a drop of nearly 90%.
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That August peak flow long preceded Bitcoin’s October high of $125,000, the same period that Timmer identified as a potential top of the cycle.
Since then, the new capital has not returned, reinforcing the idea that the distribution replaced the accumulation after the peak.
Long-term holders are becoming aggressive sellers
Conviction holders behave differently after October.
Bitcoin net long positions turned negative shortly after the session high. Sales accelerated from about 16,500 bitcoins per day at the end of October to about 279,000 bitcoins recently. This increases more than 1,500% in daily distribution pressure.
This is directly in line with Timmer’s hypothesis that the four-year phase of the half-cycle will probably end in October. Long-term holders seem to agree with them, reducing exposure instead of defending the price.
Bitcoin’s dominance is growing, but not for positive reasons
The dominance of Bitcoin has returned to 57-59%, but this is not a risk signal.
After the weaker CPI press, capital did not return to Bitcoin. Instead, flow to traditional fences. In the past year, silver is more than 120%, while gold is more than 65%. Meanwhile, the broader cryptocurrency markets lagged significantly.
This change reinforces the idea that the growing dominance of Bitcoin is not driven by a new appetite for risk, but rather by the withdrawal of capital to the relative safety in cryptocurrencies.
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This view is echoed in an exclusive market commentary shared by Ray Youssef, founder and director of NoOnes, with BeInCrypto, which highlighted why gold leads the 2025 devaluation trade while Bitcoin remains range-bound.
“While gold may clearly be winning the 2025 devaluation in terms of price performance, the comparison masks a more complex market reality. Gold’s recent rise to all-time highs and gains of 67% over the past year reflect the classic defensive investor positioning as capital seeks certainty in a market environment defined by financial excesses, geopolitical pressures, Gold uncertainties, central bank uncertainty, gold hoarding, and persistent inflation risks have reinforced gold’s role as the market’s preferred defensive asset.
Youssef added that Bitcoin’s behavior this year has moved sharply away from the digital gold narrative.
“Bitcoin, by contrast, has little time to live up to the narrative of coverage. The asset will not be traded like digital gold in 2025, due to its increasing sensitivity to macroeconomic factors. The rise of Bitcoin is now linked to the expansion of liquidity, the clarity of sovereign policy and the feeling of risk, not only the depreciation of the currency.”
Giant Whale titles are quietly dropping
The big stands are also on the decline.
The number of Bitcoin addresses holding more than 10,000 BTC fell from 92 at the beginning of December to 88. This decrease came with a decrease in price, not an accumulation.
These titles often represent players on an institutional scale. The downgrade in this industry adds another layer of confirmation that the smart money is not aggressively positioned to the upside here.
Bitcoin remains below a critical long-term average
Bitcoin is still trading below its 365-day moving average Close to $102,000, a level lost last time decisively at the beginning of the bear market 2022.
This medium acts as technical support simultaneously. The failure to recover indicates that the market has changed from the continuation of the trend to the risk of the system. If the price remains below this level, the historical precedent points to deeper bearish areas near the price range realized for traders around $72,000.
When taken together, these signals support Timmer’s warning that Bitcoin may already be in a bear market phase or approaching, although the price has not yet fully reflected it. Capital dries up, conviction holders sell, dominance grows defensive, and total relief is ignored.
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However, not all long-term cycle supports have been broken. Those counter signals come in, the exact levels that determine if this… It will become a full bear market or a prolonged transition.
Because the problem of the Bitcoin bear market has not been completely alone
Despite growing evidence pointing to a bear market for Bitcoin, two long-term cycle indicators still support against a certain structural collapse.
Also, one of the reasons that the Bitcoin bear market problem remains unresolved is how the markets interpret the CPI slowdown. While lower inflation generally benefits risk assets, the current response suggests that investors prefer safety and liquidity to growth.
This does not mean that the CPI signal is wrong. It may simply be too early, as Bitcoin historically reacts later than traditional hedging once liquidity expectations fully shift to capital flows.
These indicators and indicators that we will discuss later did not negate the bearish signals discussed above. But it explains why this phase may be a long-term transition rather than a full bear cycle.
BayCycle Summit is not activated
One of the most reliable cycle indicators in Bitcoin, the Bay Cycle Top indicator, did not show a peak signal. The indicator compares the 111-day moving average with the 350-day moving average multiplied by two.
Historically, when these two lines intersect, Bitcoin is near or at the top of major cycles.
To date, the two lines remain largely separate. This suggests that Bitcoin is not in an overheating or euphoric phase, even after the October high.
This flies in the face of the idea presented by Fidelity’s global macro director, Goren Timmer, who noted that the October peak near $125,000 fits the timing of the previous cycle.
In previous cycles, real bear markets began after clear confirmation of the Pi cycle. That signal is still absent.
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The 2-year SMA line is still the most important line
The second and more direct counterargument is structural. Bitcoin is still trading near its two-year simple moving average, which is around $82,800.
This level has repeatedly served as a long-term trend breakout for Bitcoin. Monthly closes above the two-year moving average are historically a sign of the remaining cycle.
Continuous closes below are shown to be deep bearish phases.
So far, Bitcoin has not confirmed a monthly close below this line.
This makes December’s monthly closing crucial. If Bitcoin continues to exceed $82,800 until the end of the year, the market will likely remain in a late transition phase instead of… A bear market confirmed for Bitcoin.
This finding leaves open the possibility that 2026 will reflect a positive postponement rather than a long-term decline.
However, if December closed decisively below the two-year averageThe negative outlook towards the $65,000 to $75,000 range, indicated by Timmer, is gaining structural support.
summary; Summary – Key Bitcoin Price Levels to Watch Now
The bearish frame also has clear reversal levels. A retracement of the 365-day moving average near $102,000 would significantly weaken the bear market thesis. This is in line with Tom Lee’s Bitcoin price predictions for the end of the year.
This level represents the beginning of the 2022 bear market when it breaks, and indicates renewed trend strength if it recovers.
In simple terms:
- Exceeding $82,800 at the end of December: the transition phase is still in place
- Below $82,800 per month: Bear market risks growing
- Back above $102,000: The bullish structure is starting to rebuild
Currently, Bitcoin is sitting between selling conviction and long cycle support. The market is not asserting its strength, but it is not completely collapsed yet.
The end of December will determine which narrative continues in 2026.
