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The price of HBAR continues to disappoint. The token is down about 26% over the past month and about 67% year over year, reflecting continued weakness in price and engagement. What makes the current moment even more important is where HBAR is trading right now. The price may now have another test in October 2024, putting a multi-month low on the table.
The collapse of the chart is obvious, and the buying pressure gradually collapses. However, an unusual measure suggests that the disadvantage may be exhausted. Whether this exception can be important is now the main question.
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Bear flag breakout signals indicate trend continuation and continuation risks
On the four-hour chart, HBAR has completed a model analysis of the bear flag. A bear flag is formed when the price falls sharply, consolidates in a narrow channel at the top or side, and then returns again. It is a continuation pattern, not a reversal signal.
The price of HBAR briefly broke below the flag structure near the $0.109 level, and this move continued without a significant rebound.
This emphasis is important. Using the initial height of the flagpole, the expected fall from the break indicates a movement of about 28% from the upper range of the flag. From current levels, this sets downside targets in the $0.068 area. However, if the 4-hour candle can close above the lower trend line of the bear flag, the downside risks may weaken for the time being.
This level corresponds closely to the lowest areas last traded in October-November 2024, which is why this move carries little risk for several months rather than just listing a short-term decline.
The second confirmation comes from exchange rate data. Buying pressure has been building for weeks.
On December 5th, net flows indicated low buying, with approximately 4.09 million HBARs exiting exchanges. This behavior began to weaken gradually. As of December 24, net flows have fallen to just 314,830 HBAR.
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This decrease increases About 92% in net buying pressure.
In simple terms, even when prices fell, buyers did not intervene convincingly. Instead, the inflows have returned periodically positive, showing that the selling pressure has returned quickly after a minor decrease, which indicates an exit from the panic. When the bear flag breaks and the buying pressure collapses at the same time, the probability of a continuation increases sharply.
This explains why the collapse did not attract aggressive buyers in the lower dip. The market has not yet treated this area as a value.
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There is an exception in the feeling that indicates that the negative side can be crowded
The only counterweight to a negative setting comes from emotions.
The HBAR’s positive social sentiment reading has fallen from a peak near 76.97 in late October to around 1.62 now. This represents a decrease of about 98%. This reflects extreme disinterest rather than panicked enthusiasm.
Historically, similar declines in local sentiment have led to increases in short-term relief. On November 9, when morale reached a local low, HBAR pink From about $0.17 to $0.19 in one session, a move of about 12%. On December 1, another drop in sentiment was preceded by a move from $0.13 to $0.14, an increase of nearly 14% in two days.
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This is the exception that offers hope.
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However, context is important. These rebounds occurred when structural selling pressure was lighter and buying flows were still present. Today, the mood has collapsed with a certain collapse of the bear flag and a drop in demand. This makes the signal less reliable.
In weak markets, extreme negative sentiment can be intense for more than expected.
What happens after the HBAR price?
The HBAR price is at a critical point. The prevailing signals remain bearish: a break of the bear flag, a break in the buying pressure, and the acceptance below the key support levels. As long as the price remains below $0.109, downside risks towards $0.079 and possibly $0.068 (from the 4-hour chart) remain active.
The only thing that stands in the way of this path is emotional exhaustion. If negative sentiment leads to low opportunistic buying again, HBAR may see a short-term reversal to relief. But without a clear return of buying pressure, this rebound is likely to be removed, unless the price regains $0.155, which is the beginning of the downward push.
