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The new analysis reignites one of the most important debates in the cryptocurrency world: whether investors should hold or sell tokens after receiving an airdrop.
Data shared by a trader shows that most tokens dropped on the air lose value significantly after launch, raising questions about whether selling is the most rational strategy.
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Most cryptocurrency tokens are underfunded after launch, according to analytics
In a recent post on X (formerly known as Twitter), the cryptocurrency trader Didi traced the personal receipts of the past year. The data revealed that almost all tokens suffered significant losses after their launch. For example, the M3M3 index fell by 99.64%, the Elixir index fell by 99.50%, and the usual index fell by 97.67%.
Major projects have also lost significant value. Magic Eden is down 96.6%, Jupiter has fallen by 75.9% About the TGE price, Monad is down 39.13% since then His appearance. The only token that exceeded its original price was Avantis, which gained 30.4%.
“Of the 30 airdrops I have received since December 2024, only one is trading today above its TGE price. In any case, selling an airdrop at launch somehow makes you a “traitor”. We are honest about the game we are playing. We are all here to make money. Anyone who says otherwise is lying to himself,” he read. Post .
The analyst added that historical data shows that holding altcoins for the long term is a low-probability strategy, as the potential for losses far outweighs the likelihood of substantial gains.
“Understand the environment in which you operate and prioritize the preservation of capital above all else. Profits are only real when they are made first,” said Didi.
Analysis of the entire industry seems to reinforce these conclusions. Memento Research analyzed 118 token generation events in 2025 and found that 84.7% of the tokens launched are currently trading below their TGE valuation.
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Also, 65% of those tokens lost about 50% of their value. Meanwhile, more than half of the number has fallen by 70% or more.
The report noted that projects that debuted with high fully diluted valuations (FDVs) performed particularly poorly. Of the 28 launches that started with an FDV value of $1 billion or more, none are currently greenlit today.
“When you divide the year starting FDV quarters, the pattern is clear: the cheapest and lowest FDV launches were the only ones that had a real survival rate (40% green) and relatively moderate average declines (~-26%), while all above the package average were returned to the floor with average losses ranging from ~-70% to -83%”, and the few say green.
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An analyst noted that many cryptocurrency projects aim for multi-billion dollar valuations, regardless of the maturity or usefulness of the product. Many tokens open for trading at levels far removed from their fundamental or fair value, resulting in rapid requotes once market forces prevail.
“Whoever doesn’t sell most of these drops in the secondary version is either stupid or doesn’t understand how valuation works.” He said.
Airdrops become more and more tiresome as mechanics deteriorate and trust fades
Apart from the continuous price pressure, investors are beginning to be interested in the airdrop It will disappear in 2025 For structural reasons. Market participants increasingly argue that the airdrop model itself has become too complex, exclusionary and vulnerable to abuse.
Crypto commentator Maran explained this change by comparing the airdrop mechanisms in the past and the present. In previous cycles, airdrops often required limited participation, such as the delivery of a wallet, and distributed relatively large assignments.
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In 2025, many projects will implement stricter eligibility criteria, including longer participation periods, technical requirements, enrollment windows or vesting schedules.
“Four numbers were very easy then. Now four numbers are the highest.” He added user
Another analyst stated that airdrops are “completely broken” in 2025. Zamza Slim confirmed That Sybil attacks However, it has damaged several notable airdrops in 2025 Anti-agricultural measures.
“Meta airdrop in 2025 is now over. Don’t waste a month grinding scrap while farmers eat 20%.” He said sound
Looking at the latest data, the latest data highlights a recurring pattern of poor post-launch performance among airdropped tokens, while also pointing to broader structural challenges. inside The Airdrop model. Although some tokens have managed to maintain or grow in value over time, the combination of high initial valuation, market repricing and sophisticated distribution mechanisms have made results very uncertain.
