Experts say that quantum computers are unlikely to pose a threat to Bitcoin in the near term

from Quantum computing is unlikely to be a threat to Bitcoin anytime soon. According to cryptocurrency developer and custodian Jameson Loeb, co-founder of CASA.

These statements come at a time of growing debate about whether progress in quantum computing is approaching a level that could threaten the cryptographic systems that secure blockchain chains like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Sponsored

Sponsored

Experts are divided on when quantum computers could threaten Bitcoin

In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), Loeb said that quantum computers You will not break Bitcoin almost

“No, quantum computers will not break Bitcoin in the near future. We will continue to follow its development… We have to hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.” “to publish Lob.

Loeb’s timeline is consistent with many experts who claim that quantum computers do not pose a direct threat to the network. Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream, recently said that the short-term risks are “zero”.

“All this is decades away, it’s still absurdly early and they have huge R&D problems in every aspect of applied physics research needed to see if it’s possible at a useful scale. But it’s good to be ‘quantum ready’ and, He said Buck.

Take it Charles Hoskinson, founder of Cardanoa similar situation. He argued that the current quantum threats to the blockchain are exaggerated and not urgent at the moment. Hoskinson also noted that while the blockchain could move to quantum-resistant encryption, this could come at a significant efficiency cost.

However, other experts believe that the timeline has become tighter. David Carvalho, CEO of Nauris Protocolwarned that quantum computers could jeopardize the security of Bitcoin in the next two to three years.

Sponsored

Sponsored

Separately, Michelle Mosca, a researcher at the University of Waterloo, predicted a one in seven chance that public key encryption would be broken by 2026.

In Metaculus, the timeline for quantum computers that can be made an RSA number has also been shortened. It decreased from 2052 to 2034.

The quantum doomsday clock project is more pressing. She predicts that quantum computers will break down Bitcoin encryption Until March 8, 2028.

Sponsored

Sponsored

Why Bitcoin quantum insurance is difficult?

While experts disagree on the timeline, many agree on one point. If quantum-resistant upgrades become necessary, they will take time to implement. Loeb said the transition to post-quantum standards could take 5 to 10 years.

When asked why discussions about the risks of quantum computing focus on Bitcoin rather than traditional financial institutions like banks, Loeb pointed to a fundamental difference in the speed at which systems can be updated.

“Because they can upgrade their systems orders of magnitude faster than the Bitcoin ecosystem,” He said.

Meanwhile, another market observer explained why the conversion of blockchain networks to quantum-resistant cryptography is significantly more complex than centralized systems.

“For the banking industry and the Internet, migration is relatively simple. When encryption standards change, they can release new algorithms through coordinated updates, revoke old keys, reissue credentials, and even forcibly move users.” He said.

Sponsored

Sponsored

Bitcoin, on the other hand, lacks a central authority capable of enforcing such changes. Any change to post-quantum signatures will require broad social consensus and extensive technical coordination. Voluntary User Participation.

The analyst noted that Bitcoin and wallets were lost, abandoned or inactive It cannot be transferred. Thus, a portion of the supply will remain permanently vulnerable once quantum attacks become viable. Technical limitations increase the complexity of the process.

“Most post-quantum signature systems are much larger in terms of keys and signatures than ECDSA. In a system already limited by block size limits and global redundancy, this is not a small change. What is an additional overhead to manage in a bank server or a web connection becomes a consensus problem at the scale level of the blockchain,” the post reads.

Therefore, the same decentralization that underpins Bitcoin’s security and resilience makes code adaptation slower, more complex, and harder to implement compared to centralized systems.