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Ethereum price action has sent mixed signals. After correcting more than 3% in one day, ETH is showing signs of an early recovery, but the downside risks have not yet been eliminated. The chart structure, momentum data and cost levels on the chain point to a tight decision zone.
Ethereum now finds itself caught between the possibility of a rebound and a deeper collapse. The gap between these two scenarios appears to be smaller than it appears. It should be noted that the collapse zone is closer!
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The rebound signal is located in a narrow triangle
Ethereum is currently trading In a gradually narrowing triangle, It is a structure that reflects the growing state of uncertainty between buyers and sellers. The price has compressed towards the lower trend line, and this area is often where the selling pressure begins to fade.
Between December 1 and December 17, ETH recorded a higher low in the price level. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures momentum, hit a lower low. This leads to what is called a “hidden bullish divergence,” which means selling momentum is weakening.
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This model does not guarantee a strong rally. But it points to the possibility that bearish pressure may be exhausted as Ethereum approaches structural support, That is, the lower trend line of the triangle. Basically, sellers are losing power, but buyers are still not in control.
This makes the next move very sensitive to key levels.
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Cost base data shows where Ethereum’s price recovery could stop
Analysis of chain purchasing cost data helps explain why upside is likely to be limited.
The strongest nearby resistance lies between $3,154 and $3,179, where about 2.8 million ETH have been accumulated. This area forms a heavy supply zone. When the price returns to this range, many ETH holders reach the break-even point and tend to sell.
This corresponds closely with paper resistance at $3,149, which represents an 11% upside from current levels. Even if he gets up Ethereum priceThis range is likely to attract sales unless the price closes clearly above. For this reason, any bounce below a close day above this zone is considered a correction and not a change in trend.
The negative looks crisper.
The most important support cluster is located between $2,801 and $2,823. This range acted as a major demand area. A clear day below $2,801 (which is also visible on the price chart) is a warning signal.
This move barely represents a 1% downside, but it could open the door to $2,617, the next major support level on the chart.
This makes Ethereum’s current situation dangerous. The upside can stop close to 11%, while the downside risk starts with only 1% failure.
