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The price of XRP is up about 2.3% in the last 24 hours, but the bigger picture remains weak. The token is still down about 14% in the past month and about 8.5% in the last seven days.
This weakness stands out because it appears during six consecutive weeks of ETF spot flows. On the surface, that sounds optimistic. In fact, the details explain why the price stalled.
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Six weeks of ETF flows, but momentum is starting to cool
I registered XRP spot index funds Now influx for six weeks in a row. The series began in mid-November and has pushed cumulative net flows to more than $1.01 billion.
The strongest demand came first. The week of November 14 saw $243.05 million in net inflows. This was followed by $179.60 million on November 21 and $243.95 million on November 28. The momentum reached again in early December at $230.74 million during the week of December 5th.
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Since then, the flows have decreased drastically. The week of December 11 fell to $93.57 million, and the last week ending December 16 only added $19.44 million.
So while the chart shows “six weeks of flows”, the trend below is slowing down. Demand for ETFs remains positive, but is no longer accelerating. This refresh helps explain why the XRP price failed to follow the initial upward momentum.
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String signals show a split between groups of carriers
if Demand for ETFs is beginning to fade But if the owners of the chain entered aggressively, the price could also stabilize. This did not happen well.
A worrying signal comes from the percentage of XRP supply that has been active for more than a year. This index jumped from 48.75% on December 2 to 51.00%, its highest level in about a month. When older coins start to move, it often means that a long supply has become active, which can increase selling pressure even without panic.
Meanwhile, there is another group of long-haul carriers who behave differently. The Hodler Net Position Change Index for wallets holding XRP for more than 155 days shows a decrease in selling pressure. Net inflows peaked at about 216.86 million XRP on December 11, then decreased to about 154.57 million XRP by December 16. This represents a decrease of about 29% in net sales.
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This creates a mixed picture. Some of the long-term supply is starting to wake up, and this is bearish. But some of these players are selling less, which has helped the price of XRP to avoid a sharp collapse so far. However, one theory could be that a currency movement has occurred, and those holders are waiting to sell on price rebounds.
Unless the Hodler Net Position Change indicator turns green (net long), the XRP price cannot continue to hold.
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XRP price levels will determine if it will go lower
Price action reflects this balance. price XRP is trading It is in a falling wedge and remains stuck in the middle of its recent range.
For the bulls, the important level is $2.28. A daily close above will break the wedge and indicate a rally of around 19% from current levels, bringing momentum towards buyers.
The downside risk remains more pressing. If XRP loses $1.74, which is the 0.618 Fibonacci level, the chart will open towards $1.59, with a deeper extension near $1.41 if the general market weakness continues.
Currently, ETF flows alone are insufficient. As demand cools and ongoing chain signals split, XRP price remains stuck between holding support and sellers gradually regaining control.
